1386 quote rows -> 54 distinct legs PAPER MARKET MAKER — Kalshi soccer legs quoted : 9 competitive (at/inside market): 2 (22%) would have filled : 7 (78%) contracts sold : 70 P&L : -9.10 dollars per contract : -13.00 cents by league: KO1 70 contracts -13.00 c/contract CAVEAT: fills assume we win every trade that printed at or above our ask. Real queue position would give fewer and worse fills, so treat this as the CEILING, not an estimate. emailed 21539 quote rows -> 144 distinct legs (8 completed at bid) PAPER MARKET MAKER — Kalshi soccer v2 CURRENT RULE (staged margin, capped at market ask, 12h window, 20s polling) (no settled legs yet) -------------------------------------------------------------- v1 LEGACY — DIFFERENT STRATEGY, DO NOT POOL WITH THE ABOVE (flat fair+2c, uncapped so it sat above the market on ~86% of legs, 3h window, 5-min cron. Kept only for reference.) legs quoted : 123 competitive : 21 (17%) would have filled : 24 (20%) contracts sold : 240 P&L : -6.07 dollars per contract : -2.53 cents by league: KO1 20 contracts +41.50 c/contract CN1 20 contracts +40.50 c/contract PE1 20 contracts +20.98 c/contract BR2 10 contracts +33.00 c/contract NWSL 10 contracts +17.92 c/contract BSA 30 contracts -7.05 c/contract NO1 10 contracts -26.00 c/contract SE1 40 contracts -7.50 c/contract DK1 10 contracts -37.00 c/contract CO1 20 contracts -19.24 c/contract CAN 30 contracts -18.67 c/contract CL1 20 contracts -54.50 c/contract ---------------------------------------------------------- WITH THE COMPLETION RULE APPLIED TO LEGACY BOOKS (books that settled before mm_quoter could hedge; the rule is outcome-independent, so this is a fair retrospective, but the bid used is the LAST one logged, so it is OPTIMISTIC) as recorded : 24 fills -6.07 dollars -2.53 c/contract rule applied : 27 fills -4.21 dollars -1.56 c/contract difference : +1.87 dollars CAVEAT: fills assume we win every trade that printed at or above our ask. Real queue position would give fewer and worse fills, so treat this as the CEILING, not an estimate. emailed 44071 quote rows -> 156 distinct legs (13 completed at bid) PAPER MARKET MAKER — Kalshi soccer v2 CURRENT RULE (staged margin, capped at market ask, 12h window, 20s polling) legs quoted : 21 competitive : 11 (52%) would have filled : 21 (100%) contracts sold : 210 P&L : -0.37 dollars per contract : -0.18 cents by league: CL1 30 contracts +0.53 c/contract SE1 30 contracts -0.07 c/contract DK1 30 contracts -0.25 c/contract NO1 30 contracts -0.39 c/contract BR2 90 contracts -0.36 c/contract -------------------------------------------------------------- v1 LEGACY — DIFFERENT STRATEGY, DO NOT POOL WITH THE ABOVE (flat fair+2c, uncapped so it sat above the market on ~86% of legs, 3h window, 5-min cron. Kept only for reference.) legs quoted : 123 competitive : 21 (17%) would have filled : 54 (44%) contracts sold : 540 P&L : -33.47 dollars per contract : -6.20 cents by league: KO1 30 contracts +46.00 c/contract PE1 40 contracts +11.24 c/contract BSA 110 contracts -0.92 c/contract CO1 50 contracts -5.29 c/contract CN1 40 contracts -7.75 c/contract BR2 20 contracts -17.00 c/contract DK1 10 contracts -37.00 c/contract NWSL 70 contracts -5.44 c/contract MX1 40 contracts -10.50 c/contract SE1 60 contracts -8.50 c/contract CAN 30 contracts -18.67 c/contract NO1 20 contracts -40.50 c/contract CL1 20 contracts -55.50 c/contract ---------------------------------------------------------- WITH THE COMPLETION RULE APPLIED TO LEGACY BOOKS (books that settled before mm_quoter could hedge; the rule is outcome-independent, so this is a fair retrospective, but the bid used is the LAST one logged, so it is OPTIMISTIC) as recorded : 75 fills -33.85 dollars -4.51 c/contract rule applied : 88 fills -8.86 dollars -1.01 c/contract difference : +24.99 dollars CAVEAT: fills assume we win every trade that printed at or above our ask. Real queue position would give fewer and worse fills, so treat this as the CEILING, not an estimate. emailed 78282 quote rows -> 192 distinct legs (15 completed at bid) PAPER MARKET MAKER — Kalshi soccer v3 CURRENT RULE (delayed completion: cross only inside the last hour; 0-5c price ladder) legs quoted : 1 competitive : 0 (0%) would have filled : 1 (100%) contracts sold : 10 P&L : +1.79 dollars per contract : +17.92 cents by league: CAN 10 contracts +17.92 c/contract -------------------------------------------------------------- v2 (crossed to complete IMMEDIATELY at 2-of-3, ~9h early) — DIFFERENT RULE, DO NOT POOL legs quoted : 35 competitive : 17 (49%) would have filled : 35 (100%) contracts sold : 350 P&L : -2.57 dollars per contract : -0.73 cents by league: CL1 30 contracts +0.53 c/contract SE1 30 contracts -0.07 c/contract DK1 30 contracts -0.25 c/contract NO1 30 contracts -0.39 c/contract AR1 30 contracts -0.73 c/contract BR2 180 contracts -0.39 c/contract CAN 20 contracts -8.00 c/contract -------------------------------------------------------------- v1 LEGACY — DIFFERENT STRATEGY, DO NOT POOL WITH THE ABOVE (flat fair+2c, uncapped so it sat above the market on ~86% of legs, 3h window, 5-min cron. Kept only for reference.) legs quoted : 123 competitive : 21 (17%) would have filled : 54 (44%) contracts sold : 540 P&L : -33.47 dollars per contract : -6.20 cents by league: KO1 30 contracts +46.00 c/contract PE1 40 contracts +11.24 c/contract BSA 110 contracts -0.92 c/contract CO1 50 contracts -5.29 c/contract CN1 40 contracts -7.75 c/contract BR2 20 contracts -17.00 c/contract DK1 10 contracts -37.00 c/contract NWSL 70 contracts -5.44 c/contract MX1 40 contracts -10.50 c/contract SE1 60 contracts -8.50 c/contract CAN 30 contracts -18.67 c/contract NO1 20 contracts -40.50 c/contract CL1 20 contracts -55.50 c/contract ---------------------------------------------------------- WITH THE COMPLETION RULE APPLIED TO LEGACY BOOKS (books that settled before mm_quoter could hedge; the rule is outcome-independent, so this is a fair retrospective, but the bid used is the LAST one logged, so it is OPTIMISTIC) as recorded : 90 fills -34.25 dollars -3.81 c/contract rule applied : 103 fills -9.26 dollars -0.90 c/contract difference : +24.99 dollars CAVEAT: fills assume we win every trade that printed at or above our ask. Real queue position would give fewer and worse fills, so treat this as the CEILING, not an estimate. emailed 124364 quote rows -> 216 distinct legs (22 completed at bid) PAPER MARKET MAKER — Kalshi soccer v3 CURRENT RULE (delayed completion: cross only inside the last hour; 0-5c price ladder) legs quoted : 37 competitive : 8 (22%) would have filled : 29 (78%) contracts sold : 290 P&L : -13.38 dollars per contract : -4.61 cents by league: CAN 10 contracts +17.92 c/contract NWSL 80 contracts -2.57 c/contract BSA 80 contracts -2.63 c/contract USL 50 contracts -9.61 c/contract AR1 70 contracts -8.87 c/contract -------------------------------------------------------------- v2 (crossed to complete IMMEDIATELY at 2-of-3, ~9h early) — DIFFERENT RULE, DO NOT POOL legs quoted : 35 competitive : 17 (49%) would have filled : 35 (100%) contracts sold : 350 P&L : -2.57 dollars per contract : -0.73 cents by league: CL1 30 contracts +0.53 c/contract SE1 30 contracts -0.07 c/contract DK1 30 contracts -0.25 c/contract NO1 30 contracts -0.39 c/contract AR1 30 contracts -0.73 c/contract BR2 180 contracts -0.39 c/contract CAN 20 contracts -8.00 c/contract -------------------------------------------------------------- v1 LEGACY — DIFFERENT STRATEGY, DO NOT POOL WITH THE ABOVE (flat fair+2c, uncapped so it sat above the market on ~86% of legs, 3h window, 5-min cron. Kept only for reference.) legs quoted : 123 competitive : 21 (17%) would have filled : 54 (44%) contracts sold : 540 P&L : -33.47 dollars per contract : -6.20 cents by league: KO1 30 contracts +46.00 c/contract PE1 40 contracts +11.24 c/contract BSA 110 contracts -0.92 c/contract CO1 50 contracts -5.29 c/contract CN1 40 contracts -7.75 c/contract BR2 20 contracts -17.00 c/contract DK1 10 contracts -37.00 c/contract NWSL 70 contracts -5.44 c/contract MX1 40 contracts -10.50 c/contract SE1 60 contracts -8.50 c/contract CAN 30 contracts -18.67 c/contract NO1 20 contracts -40.50 c/contract CL1 20 contracts -55.50 c/contract ---------------------------------------------------------- WITH THE COMPLETION RULE APPLIED TO LEGACY BOOKS (books that settled before mm_quoter could hedge; the rule is outcome-independent, so this is a fair retrospective, but the bid used is the LAST one logged, so it is OPTIMISTIC) as recorded : 118 fills -49.42 dollars -4.19 c/contract rule applied : 134 fills -15.93 dollars -1.19 c/contract difference : +33.49 dollars CAVEAT: fills assume we win every trade that printed at or above our ask. Real queue position would give fewer and worse fills, so treat this as the CEILING, not an estimate. emailed 160376 quote rows -> 252 distinct legs (27 completed at bid) PAPER MARKET MAKER — Kalshi soccer v3 CURRENT RULE (delayed completion: cross only inside the last hour; 0-5c price ladder) legs quoted : 58 competitive : 9 (16%) would have filled : 47 (81%) contracts sold : 470 P&L : -23.70 dollars per contract : -5.04 cents by league: CAN 10 contracts +17.92 c/contract CO1 30 contracts +0.67 c/contract NWSL 80 contracts -2.57 c/contract USL 50 contracts -9.61 c/contract BSA 130 contracts -5.46 c/contract AR1 170 contracts -6.91 c/contract -------------------------------------------------------------- v2 (crossed to complete IMMEDIATELY at 2-of-3, ~9h early) — DIFFERENT RULE, DO NOT POOL legs quoted : 35 competitive : 17 (49%) would have filled : 35 (100%) contracts sold : 350 P&L : -2.57 dollars per contract : -0.73 cents by league: CL1 30 contracts +0.53 c/contract SE1 30 contracts -0.07 c/contract DK1 30 contracts -0.25 c/contract NO1 30 contracts -0.39 c/contract AR1 30 contracts -0.73 c/contract BR2 180 contracts -0.39 c/contract CAN 20 contracts -8.00 c/contract -------------------------------------------------------------- v1 LEGACY — DIFFERENT STRATEGY, DO NOT POOL WITH THE ABOVE (flat fair+2c, uncapped so it sat above the market on ~86% of legs, 3h window, 5-min cron. Kept only for reference.) legs quoted : 123 competitive : 21 (17%) would have filled : 54 (44%) contracts sold : 540 P&L : -33.47 dollars per contract : -6.20 cents by league: KO1 30 contracts +46.00 c/contract PE1 40 contracts +11.24 c/contract BSA 110 contracts -0.92 c/contract CO1 50 contracts -5.29 c/contract CN1 40 contracts -7.75 c/contract BR2 20 contracts -17.00 c/contract DK1 10 contracts -37.00 c/contract NWSL 70 contracts -5.44 c/contract MX1 40 contracts -10.50 c/contract SE1 60 contracts -8.50 c/contract CAN 30 contracts -18.67 c/contract NO1 20 contracts -40.50 c/contract CL1 20 contracts -55.50 c/contract ---------------------------------------------------------- WITH THE COMPLETION RULE APPLIED TO LEGACY BOOKS (books that settled before mm_quoter could hedge; the rule is outcome-independent, so this is a fair retrospective, but the bid used is the LAST one logged, so it is OPTIMISTIC) as recorded : 136 fills -59.74 dollars -4.39 c/contract rule applied : 153 fills -23.30 dollars -1.52 c/contract difference : +36.44 dollars CAVEAT: fills assume we win every trade that printed at or above our ask. Real queue position would give fewer and worse fills, so treat this as the CEILING, not an estimate. emailed 267643 quote rows -> 405 distinct legs (31 completed at bid) PAPER MARKET MAKER — Kalshi soccer v3 CURRENT RULE (delayed completion: cross only inside the last hour; 0-5c price ladder) legs quoted : 118 competitive : 9 (8%) would have filled : 99 (84%) contracts sold : 990 P&L : -9.86 dollars per contract : -1.00 cents by league: NO1 30 contracts +20.67 c/contract PL1 40 contracts +11.50 c/contract CAN 40 contracts +4.98 c/contract CO1 60 contracts +1.00 c/contract MX1 90 contracts +0.54 c/contract MLS 30 contracts +1.33 c/contract CZ1 30 contracts +1.00 c/contract KO1 90 contracts +0.28 c/contract CN1 30 contracts +0.67 c/contract PE1 30 contracts +0.67 c/contract HR1 30 contracts +0.33 c/contract CL1 30 contracts +0.33 c/contract NWSL 110 contracts -1.50 c/contract USL 50 contracts -9.61 c/contract BSA 130 contracts -5.46 c/contract AR1 170 contracts -6.91 c/contract -------------------------------------------------------------- v2 (crossed to complete IMMEDIATELY at 2-of-3, ~9h early) — DIFFERENT RULE, DO NOT POOL legs quoted : 35 competitive : 17 (49%) would have filled : 35 (100%) contracts sold : 350 P&L : -2.57 dollars per contract : -0.73 cents by league: CL1 30 contracts +0.53 c/contract SE1 30 contracts -0.07 c/contract DK1 30 contracts -0.25 c/contract NO1 30 contracts -0.39 c/contract AR1 30 contracts -0.73 c/contract BR2 180 contracts -0.39 c/contract CAN 20 contracts -8.00 c/contract -------------------------------------------------------------- v1 LEGACY — DIFFERENT STRATEGY, DO NOT POOL WITH THE ABOVE (flat fair+2c, uncapped so it sat above the market on ~86% of legs, 3h window, 5-min cron. Kept only for reference.) legs quoted : 123 competitive : 21 (17%) would have filled : 54 (44%) contracts sold : 540 P&L : -33.47 dollars per contract : -6.20 cents by league: KO1 30 contracts +46.00 c/contract PE1 40 contracts +11.24 c/contract BSA 110 contracts -0.92 c/contract CO1 50 contracts -5.29 c/contract CN1 40 contracts -7.75 c/contract BR2 20 contracts -17.00 c/contract DK1 10 contracts -37.00 c/contract NWSL 70 contracts -5.44 c/contract MX1 40 contracts -10.50 c/contract SE1 60 contracts -8.50 c/contract CAN 30 contracts -18.67 c/contract NO1 20 contracts -40.50 c/contract CL1 20 contracts -55.50 c/contract ---------------------------------------------------------- WITH THE COMPLETION RULE APPLIED TO LEGACY BOOKS (books that settled before mm_quoter could hedge; the rule is outcome-independent, so this is a fair retrospective, but the bid used is the LAST one logged, so it is OPTIMISTIC) as recorded : 188 fills -45.90 dollars -2.44 c/contract rule applied : 208 fills -22.63 dollars -1.09 c/contract difference : +23.26 dollars CAVEAT: fills assume we win every trade that printed at or above our ask. Real queue position would give fewer and worse fills, so treat this as the CEILING, not an estimate. emailed 278294 quote rows -> 510 distinct legs (31 completed at bid) PAPER MARKET MAKER — Kalshi soccer v3 CURRENT RULE (delayed completion: cross only inside the last hour; 0-5c price ladder) legs quoted : 292 competitive : 25 (9%) would have filled : 183 (63%) contracts sold : 1,830 P&L : -29.90 dollars per contract : -1.63 cents by league: CH1 50 contracts +19.80 c/contract NO1 40 contracts +22.50 c/contract CL1 50 contracts +14.00 c/contract MLS 130 contracts +5.08 c/contract KO1 160 contracts +3.22 c/contract PL1 70 contracts +6.37 c/contract CN1 150 contracts +0.13 c/contract SE1 30 contracts +0.33 c/contract CO1 120 contracts +0.00 c/contract CAN 60 contracts -0.51 c/contract CZ1 80 contracts -2.12 c/contract NWSL 150 contracts -3.90 c/contract MX1 130 contracts -4.70 c/contract HR1 70 contracts -9.29 c/contract SC0 10 contracts -67.00 c/contract BSA 130 contracts -5.46 c/contract PE1 50 contracts -20.20 c/contract AR1 200 contracts -5.72 c/contract USL 150 contracts -11.00 c/contract -------------------------------------------------------------- v2 (crossed to complete IMMEDIATELY at 2-of-3, ~9h early) — DIFFERENT RULE, DO NOT POOL legs quoted : 35 competitive : 17 (49%) would have filled : 35 (100%) contracts sold : 350 P&L : -2.57 dollars per contract : -0.73 cents by league: CL1 30 contracts +0.53 c/contract SE1 30 contracts -0.07 c/contract DK1 30 contracts -0.25 c/contract NO1 30 contracts -0.39 c/contract AR1 30 contracts -0.73 c/contract BR2 180 contracts -0.39 c/contract CAN 20 contracts -8.00 c/contract -------------------------------------------------------------- v1 LEGACY — DIFFERENT STRATEGY, DO NOT POOL WITH THE ABOVE (flat fair+2c, uncapped so it sat above the market on ~86% of legs, 3h window, 5-min cron. Kept only for reference.) legs quoted : 123 competitive : 21 (17%) would have filled : 54 (44%) contracts sold : 540 P&L : -33.47 dollars per contract : -6.20 cents by league: KO1 30 contracts +46.00 c/contract PE1 40 contracts +11.24 c/contract BSA 110 contracts -0.92 c/contract CO1 50 contracts -5.29 c/contract CN1 40 contracts -7.75 c/contract BR2 20 contracts -17.00 c/contract DK1 10 contracts -37.00 c/contract NWSL 70 contracts -5.44 c/contract MX1 40 contracts -10.50 c/contract SE1 60 contracts -8.50 c/contract CAN 30 contracts -18.67 c/contract NO1 20 contracts -40.50 c/contract CL1 20 contracts -55.50 c/contract ---------------------------------------------------------- WITH THE COMPLETION RULE APPLIED TO LEGACY BOOKS (books that settled before mm_quoter could hedge; the rule is outcome-independent, so this is a fair retrospective, but the bid used is the LAST one logged, so it is OPTIMISTIC) as recorded : 272 fills -65.94 dollars -2.42 c/contract rule applied : 306 fills -42.18 dollars -1.38 c/contract difference : +23.76 dollars CAVEAT: fills assume we win every trade that printed at or above our ask. Real queue position would give fewer and worse fills, so treat this as the CEILING, not an estimate. emailed 288916 quote rows -> 555 distinct legs (32 completed at bid) PAPER MARKET MAKER — Kalshi soccer v3 CURRENT RULE (delayed completion: cross only inside the last hour; 0-5c price ladder) legs quoted : 388 competitive : 46 (12%) would have filled : 244 (63%) contracts sold : 2,440 P&L : -30.01 dollars per contract : -1.23 cents by league: CH1 50 contracts +19.80 c/contract NO1 60 contracts +12.00 c/contract MLS 130 contracts +5.08 c/contract KO1 160 contracts +3.22 c/contract CL1 90 contracts +4.33 c/contract PL1 90 contracts +2.18 c/contract CN1 180 contracts +1.05 c/contract NWSL 200 contracts +0.72 c/contract CZ1 90 contracts +0.78 c/contract CO1 180 contracts +0.17 c/contract SE1 30 contracts +0.33 c/contract CAN 90 contracts -0.23 c/contract SC0 20 contracts -10.50 c/contract DK1 40 contracts -9.25 c/contract MX1 190 contracts -3.01 c/contract BSA 130 contracts -5.46 c/contract PE1 140 contracts -6.50 c/contract HR1 90 contracts -10.78 c/contract AR1 300 contracts -5.11 c/contract USL 180 contracts -9.01 c/contract -------------------------------------------------------------- v2 (crossed to complete IMMEDIATELY at 2-of-3, ~9h early) — DIFFERENT RULE, DO NOT POOL legs quoted : 35 competitive : 17 (49%) would have filled : 35 (100%) contracts sold : 350 P&L : -2.57 dollars per contract : -0.73 cents by league: CL1 30 contracts +0.53 c/contract SE1 30 contracts -0.07 c/contract DK1 30 contracts -0.25 c/contract NO1 30 contracts -0.39 c/contract AR1 30 contracts -0.73 c/contract BR2 180 contracts -0.39 c/contract CAN 20 contracts -8.00 c/contract -------------------------------------------------------------- v1 LEGACY — DIFFERENT STRATEGY, DO NOT POOL WITH THE ABOVE (flat fair+2c, uncapped so it sat above the market on ~86% of legs, 3h window, 5-min cron. Kept only for reference.) legs quoted : 123 competitive : 21 (17%) would have filled : 54 (44%) contracts sold : 540 P&L : -33.47 dollars per contract : -6.20 cents by league: KO1 30 contracts +46.00 c/contract PE1 40 contracts +11.24 c/contract BSA 110 contracts -0.92 c/contract CO1 50 contracts -5.29 c/contract CN1 40 contracts -7.75 c/contract BR2 20 contracts -17.00 c/contract DK1 10 contracts -37.00 c/contract NWSL 70 contracts -5.44 c/contract MX1 40 contracts -10.50 c/contract SE1 60 contracts -8.50 c/contract CAN 30 contracts -18.67 c/contract NO1 20 contracts -40.50 c/contract CL1 20 contracts -55.50 c/contract ---------------------------------------------------------- WITH THE COMPLETION RULE APPLIED TO LEGACY BOOKS (books that settled before mm_quoter could hedge; the rule is outcome-independent, so this is a fair retrospective, but the bid used is the LAST one logged, so it is OPTIMISTIC) as recorded : 333 fills -66.05 dollars -1.98 c/contract rule applied : 375 fills -31.59 dollars -0.84 c/contract difference : +34.47 dollars CAVEAT: fills assume we win every trade that printed at or above our ask. Real queue position would give fewer and worse fills, so treat this as the CEILING, not an estimate. emailed 293167 quote rows -> 582 distinct legs (32 completed at bid) PAPER MARKET MAKER — Kalshi soccer v3 CURRENT RULE (delayed completion: cross only inside the last hour; 0-5c price ladder) legs quoted : 421 competitive : 58 (14%) would have filled : 272 (65%) contracts sold : 2,720 P&L : -32.21 dollars per contract : -1.18 cents by league: CH1 50 contracts +19.80 c/contract NO1 60 contracts +12.00 c/contract MLS 130 contracts +5.08 c/contract KO1 160 contracts +3.22 c/contract CL1 90 contracts +4.33 c/contract PL1 90 contracts +2.18 c/contract CN1 180 contracts +1.05 c/contract NWSL 200 contracts +0.72 c/contract CZ1 90 contracts +0.78 c/contract SE1 90 contracts +0.56 c/contract CAN 90 contracts -0.23 c/contract CO1 200 contracts -0.50 c/contract SC0 50 contracts -3.60 c/contract DK1 70 contracts -4.86 c/contract MX1 190 contracts -3.01 c/contract BSA 130 contracts -5.46 c/contract PE1 140 contracts -6.50 c/contract HR1 90 contracts -10.78 c/contract USL 180 contracts -9.01 c/contract AR1 440 contracts -3.92 c/contract -------------------------------------------------------------- v2 (crossed to complete IMMEDIATELY at 2-of-3, ~9h early) — DIFFERENT RULE, DO NOT POOL legs quoted : 35 competitive : 17 (49%) would have filled : 35 (100%) contracts sold : 350 P&L : -2.57 dollars per contract : -0.73 cents by league: CL1 30 contracts +0.53 c/contract SE1 30 contracts -0.07 c/contract DK1 30 contracts -0.25 c/contract NO1 30 contracts -0.39 c/contract AR1 30 contracts -0.73 c/contract BR2 180 contracts -0.39 c/contract CAN 20 contracts -8.00 c/contract -------------------------------------------------------------- v1 LEGACY — DIFFERENT STRATEGY, DO NOT POOL WITH THE ABOVE (flat fair+2c, uncapped so it sat above the market on ~86% of legs, 3h window, 5-min cron. Kept only for reference.) legs quoted : 123 competitive : 21 (17%) would have filled : 54 (44%) contracts sold : 540 P&L : -33.47 dollars per contract : -6.20 cents by league: KO1 30 contracts +46.00 c/contract PE1 40 contracts +11.24 c/contract BSA 110 contracts -0.92 c/contract CO1 50 contracts -5.29 c/contract CN1 40 contracts -7.75 c/contract BR2 20 contracts -17.00 c/contract DK1 10 contracts -37.00 c/contract NWSL 70 contracts -5.44 c/contract MX1 40 contracts -10.50 c/contract SE1 60 contracts -8.50 c/contract CAN 30 contracts -18.67 c/contract NO1 20 contracts -40.50 c/contract CL1 20 contracts -55.50 c/contract ---------------------------------------------------------- WITH THE COMPLETION RULE APPLIED TO LEGACY BOOKS (books that settled before mm_quoter could hedge; the rule is outcome-independent, so this is a fair retrospective, but the bid used is the LAST one logged, so it is OPTIMISTIC) as recorded : 361 fills -68.25 dollars -1.89 c/contract rule applied : 405 fills -29.52 dollars -0.73 c/contract difference : +38.73 dollars CAVEAT: fills assume we win every trade that printed at or above our ask. Real queue position would give fewer and worse fills, so treat this as the CEILING, not an estimate. emailed 294013 quote rows -> 594 distinct legs (33 completed at bid) PAPER MARKET MAKER — Kalshi soccer v3 CURRENT RULE (delayed completion: cross only inside the last hour; 0-5c price ladder) legs quoted : 430 competitive : 60 (14%) would have filled : 281 (65%) contracts sold : 2,810 P&L : -31.69 dollars per contract : -1.13 cents by league: CH1 50 contracts +19.80 c/contract NO1 60 contracts +12.00 c/contract MLS 130 contracts +5.08 c/contract KO1 160 contracts +3.22 c/contract CL1 90 contracts +4.33 c/contract PL1 90 contracts +2.18 c/contract CN1 180 contracts +1.05 c/contract NWSL 200 contracts +0.72 c/contract CZ1 90 contracts +0.78 c/contract SE1 90 contracts +0.56 c/contract CAN 90 contracts -0.23 c/contract CO1 290 contracts -0.16 c/contract SC0 50 contracts -3.60 c/contract DK1 70 contracts -4.86 c/contract MX1 190 contracts -3.01 c/contract BSA 130 contracts -5.46 c/contract PE1 140 contracts -6.50 c/contract HR1 90 contracts -10.78 c/contract USL 180 contracts -9.01 c/contract AR1 440 contracts -3.92 c/contract -------------------------------------------------------------- v2 (crossed to complete IMMEDIATELY at 2-of-3, ~9h early) — DIFFERENT RULE, DO NOT POOL legs quoted : 35 competitive : 17 (49%) would have filled : 35 (100%) contracts sold : 350 P&L : -2.57 dollars per contract : -0.73 cents by league: CL1 30 contracts +0.53 c/contract SE1 30 contracts -0.07 c/contract DK1 30 contracts -0.25 c/contract NO1 30 contracts -0.39 c/contract AR1 30 contracts -0.73 c/contract BR2 180 contracts -0.39 c/contract CAN 20 contracts -8.00 c/contract -------------------------------------------------------------- v1 LEGACY — DIFFERENT STRATEGY, DO NOT POOL WITH THE ABOVE (flat fair+2c, uncapped so it sat above the market on ~86% of legs, 3h window, 5-min cron. Kept only for reference.) legs quoted : 123 competitive : 21 (17%) would have filled : 54 (44%) contracts sold : 540 P&L : -33.47 dollars per contract : -6.20 cents by league: KO1 30 contracts +46.00 c/contract PE1 40 contracts +11.24 c/contract BSA 110 contracts -0.92 c/contract CO1 50 contracts -5.29 c/contract CN1 40 contracts -7.75 c/contract BR2 20 contracts -17.00 c/contract DK1 10 contracts -37.00 c/contract NWSL 70 contracts -5.44 c/contract MX1 40 contracts -10.50 c/contract SE1 60 contracts -8.50 c/contract CAN 30 contracts -18.67 c/contract NO1 20 contracts -40.50 c/contract CL1 20 contracts -55.50 c/contract ---------------------------------------------------------- WITH THE COMPLETION RULE APPLIED TO LEGACY BOOKS (books that settled before mm_quoter could hedge; the rule is outcome-independent, so this is a fair retrospective, but the bid used is the LAST one logged, so it is OPTIMISTIC) as recorded : 370 fills -67.73 dollars -1.83 c/contract rule applied : 414 fills -28.99 dollars -0.70 c/contract difference : +38.73 dollars CAVEAT: fills assume we win every trade that printed at or above our ask. Real queue position would give fewer and worse fills, so treat this as the CEILING, not an estimate. emailed 298455 quote rows -> 612 distinct legs (34 completed at bid) PAPER MARKET MAKER — Kalshi soccer v3 CURRENT RULE (delayed completion: cross only inside the last hour; 0-5c price ladder) legs quoted : 448 competitive : 61 (14%) would have filled : 292 (65%) contracts sold : 2,920 P&L : -23.51 dollars per contract : -0.81 cents by league: CH1 50 contracts +19.80 c/contract NO1 60 contracts +12.00 c/contract MLS 130 contracts +5.08 c/contract KO1 160 contracts +3.22 c/contract CL1 90 contracts +4.33 c/contract PL1 90 contracts +2.18 c/contract CN1 180 contracts +1.05 c/contract NWSL 230 contracts +0.66 c/contract CZ1 90 contracts +0.78 c/contract SE1 90 contracts +0.56 c/contract CAN 90 contracts -0.23 c/contract CO1 290 contracts -0.16 c/contract SC0 50 contracts -3.60 c/contract DK1 70 contracts -4.86 c/contract MX1 190 contracts -3.01 c/contract BSA 130 contracts -5.46 c/contract PE1 140 contracts -6.50 c/contract HR1 90 contracts -10.78 c/contract USL 220 contracts -5.69 c/contract AR1 480 contracts -2.68 c/contract -------------------------------------------------------------- v2 (crossed to complete IMMEDIATELY at 2-of-3, ~9h early) — DIFFERENT RULE, DO NOT POOL legs quoted : 35 competitive : 17 (49%) would have filled : 35 (100%) contracts sold : 350 P&L : -2.57 dollars per contract : -0.73 cents by league: CL1 30 contracts +0.53 c/contract SE1 30 contracts -0.07 c/contract DK1 30 contracts -0.25 c/contract NO1 30 contracts -0.39 c/contract AR1 30 contracts -0.73 c/contract BR2 180 contracts -0.39 c/contract CAN 20 contracts -8.00 c/contract -------------------------------------------------------------- v1 LEGACY — DIFFERENT STRATEGY, DO NOT POOL WITH THE ABOVE (flat fair+2c, uncapped so it sat above the market on ~86% of legs, 3h window, 5-min cron. Kept only for reference.) legs quoted : 123 competitive : 21 (17%) would have filled : 54 (44%) contracts sold : 540 P&L : -33.47 dollars per contract : -6.20 cents by league: KO1 30 contracts +46.00 c/contract PE1 40 contracts +11.24 c/contract BSA 110 contracts -0.92 c/contract CO1 50 contracts -5.29 c/contract CN1 40 contracts -7.75 c/contract BR2 20 contracts -17.00 c/contract DK1 10 contracts -37.00 c/contract NWSL 70 contracts -5.44 c/contract MX1 40 contracts -10.50 c/contract SE1 60 contracts -8.50 c/contract CAN 30 contracts -18.67 c/contract NO1 20 contracts -40.50 c/contract CL1 20 contracts -55.50 c/contract ---------------------------------------------------------- WITH THE COMPLETION RULE APPLIED TO LEGACY BOOKS (books that settled before mm_quoter could hedge; the rule is outcome-independent, so this is a fair retrospective, but the bid used is the LAST one logged, so it is OPTIMISTIC) as recorded : 381 fills -59.55 dollars -1.56 c/contract rule applied : 427 fills -25.69 dollars -0.60 c/contract difference : +33.87 dollars CAVEAT: fills assume we win every trade that printed at or above our ask. Real queue position would give fewer and worse fills, so treat this as the CEILING, not an estimate. emailed 301498 quote rows -> 624 distinct legs (34 completed at bid) PAPER MARKET MAKER — Kalshi soccer v3 CURRENT RULE (delayed completion: cross only inside the last hour; 0-5c price ladder) legs quoted : 451 competitive : 61 (14%) would have filled : 295 (65%) contracts sold : 2,950 P&L : -23.11 dollars per contract : -0.78 cents by league: CH1 50 contracts +19.80 c/contract NO1 60 contracts +12.00 c/contract MLS 130 contracts +5.08 c/contract KO1 160 contracts +3.22 c/contract CL1 90 contracts +4.33 c/contract PL1 90 contracts +2.18 c/contract CN1 180 contracts +1.05 c/contract NWSL 230 contracts +0.66 c/contract CZ1 90 contracts +0.78 c/contract SE1 90 contracts +0.56 c/contract CAN 90 contracts -0.23 c/contract CO1 290 contracts -0.16 c/contract SC0 50 contracts -3.60 c/contract DK1 70 contracts -4.86 c/contract MX1 190 contracts -3.01 c/contract BSA 130 contracts -5.46 c/contract PE1 170 contracts -5.12 c/contract HR1 90 contracts -10.78 c/contract USL 220 contracts -5.69 c/contract AR1 480 contracts -2.68 c/contract -------------------------------------------------------------- v2 (crossed to complete IMMEDIATELY at 2-of-3, ~9h early) — DIFFERENT RULE, DO NOT POOL legs quoted : 35 competitive : 17 (49%) would have filled : 35 (100%) contracts sold : 350 P&L : -2.57 dollars per contract : -0.73 cents by league: CL1 30 contracts +0.53 c/contract SE1 30 contracts -0.07 c/contract DK1 30 contracts -0.25 c/contract NO1 30 contracts -0.39 c/contract AR1 30 contracts -0.73 c/contract BR2 180 contracts -0.39 c/contract CAN 20 contracts -8.00 c/contract -------------------------------------------------------------- v1 LEGACY — DIFFERENT STRATEGY, DO NOT POOL WITH THE ABOVE (flat fair+2c, uncapped so it sat above the market on ~86% of legs, 3h window, 5-min cron. Kept only for reference.) legs quoted : 123 competitive : 21 (17%) would have filled : 54 (44%) contracts sold : 540 P&L : -33.47 dollars per contract : -6.20 cents by league: KO1 30 contracts +46.00 c/contract PE1 40 contracts +11.24 c/contract BSA 110 contracts -0.92 c/contract CO1 50 contracts -5.29 c/contract CN1 40 contracts -7.75 c/contract BR2 20 contracts -17.00 c/contract DK1 10 contracts -37.00 c/contract NWSL 70 contracts -5.44 c/contract MX1 40 contracts -10.50 c/contract SE1 60 contracts -8.50 c/contract CAN 30 contracts -18.67 c/contract NO1 20 contracts -40.50 c/contract CL1 20 contracts -55.50 c/contract ---------------------------------------------------------- WITH THE COMPLETION RULE APPLIED TO LEGACY BOOKS (books that settled before mm_quoter could hedge; the rule is outcome-independent, so this is a fair retrospective, but the bid used is the LAST one logged, so it is OPTIMISTIC) as recorded : 384 fills -59.16 dollars -1.54 c/contract rule applied : 430 fills -25.29 dollars -0.59 c/contract difference : +33.87 dollars CAVEAT: fills assume we win every trade that printed at or above our ask. Real queue position would give fewer and worse fills, so treat this as the CEILING, not an estimate. emailed 319999 quote rows -> 735 distinct legs (35 completed at bid) PAPER MARKET MAKER — Kalshi soccer v3 CURRENT RULE (delayed completion: cross only inside the last hour; 0-5c price ladder) legs quoted : 499 competitive : 71 (14%) would have filled : 325 (65%) contracts sold : 3,250 P&L : -29.97 dollars per contract : -0.92 cents by league: CH1 50 contracts +19.80 c/contract NO1 60 contracts +12.00 c/contract MLS 130 contracts +5.08 c/contract KO1 160 contracts +3.22 c/contract JP1 60 contracts +7.33 c/contract CL1 90 contracts +4.33 c/contract PL1 90 contracts +2.18 c/contract MX1 180 contracts +0.60 c/contract CZ1 90 contracts +0.78 c/contract CN1 200 contracts +0.30 c/contract SE1 90 contracts +0.56 c/contract P1 30 contracts +1.00 c/contract BR2 30 contracts +0.15 c/contract CO1 290 contracts -0.16 c/contract SC0 50 contracts -3.60 c/contract B1 10 contracts -18.00 c/contract NWSL 270 contracts -1.18 c/contract DK1 100 contracts -3.30 c/contract CAN 110 contracts -4.64 c/contract BSA 130 contracts -5.46 c/contract HR1 90 contracts -10.78 c/contract USL 220 contracts -5.69 c/contract AR1 480 contracts -2.68 c/contract PE1 240 contracts -6.04 c/contract -------------------------------------------------------------- v2 (crossed to complete IMMEDIATELY at 2-of-3, ~9h early) — DIFFERENT RULE, DO NOT POOL legs quoted : 35 competitive : 17 (49%) would have filled : 35 (100%) contracts sold : 350 P&L : -2.57 dollars per contract : -0.73 cents by league: CL1 30 contracts +0.53 c/contract SE1 30 contracts -0.07 c/contract DK1 30 contracts -0.25 c/contract NO1 30 contracts -0.39 c/contract AR1 30 contracts -0.73 c/contract BR2 180 contracts -0.39 c/contract CAN 20 contracts -8.00 c/contract -------------------------------------------------------------- v1 LEGACY — DIFFERENT STRATEGY, DO NOT POOL WITH THE ABOVE (flat fair+2c, uncapped so it sat above the market on ~86% of legs, 3h window, 5-min cron. Kept only for reference.) legs quoted : 123 competitive : 21 (17%) would have filled : 54 (44%) contracts sold : 540 P&L : -33.47 dollars per contract : -6.20 cents by league: KO1 30 contracts +46.00 c/contract PE1 40 contracts +11.24 c/contract BSA 110 contracts -0.92 c/contract CO1 50 contracts -5.29 c/contract CN1 40 contracts -7.75 c/contract BR2 20 contracts -17.00 c/contract DK1 10 contracts -37.00 c/contract NWSL 70 contracts -5.44 c/contract MX1 40 contracts -10.50 c/contract SE1 60 contracts -8.50 c/contract CAN 30 contracts -18.67 c/contract NO1 20 contracts -40.50 c/contract CL1 20 contracts -55.50 c/contract ---------------------------------------------------------- WITH THE COMPLETION RULE APPLIED TO LEGACY BOOKS (books that settled before mm_quoter could hedge; the rule is outcome-independent, so this is a fair retrospective, but the bid used is the LAST one logged, so it is OPTIMISTIC) as recorded : 414 fills -66.01 dollars -1.59 c/contract rule applied : 465 fills -29.58 dollars -0.64 c/contract difference : +36.43 dollars CAVEAT: fills assume we win every trade that printed at or above our ask. Real queue position would give fewer and worse fills, so treat this as the CEILING, not an estimate. emailed 320383 quote rows -> 735 distinct legs (35 completed at bid) PAPER MARKET MAKER — Kalshi soccer v3 CURRENT RULE (delayed completion: cross only inside the last hour; 0-5c price ladder) legs quoted : 568 competitive : 73 (13%) would have filled : 345 (61%) contracts sold : 3,450 P&L : -8.57 dollars per contract : -0.25 cents by league: CH1 60 contracts +25.83 c/contract NO1 60 contracts +12.00 c/contract MLS 130 contracts +5.08 c/contract KO1 240 contracts +2.69 c/contract JP1 60 contracts +7.33 c/contract SE1 100 contracts +4.10 c/contract D2 10 contracts +40.00 c/contract CL1 90 contracts +4.33 c/contract SC0 60 contracts +3.33 c/contract PL1 90 contracts +2.18 c/contract NWSL 280 contracts +0.26 c/contract CZ1 90 contracts +0.78 c/contract CAN 130 contracts +0.46 c/contract P1 30 contracts +1.00 c/contract BR2 30 contracts +0.15 c/contract CO1 290 contracts -0.16 c/contract B1 10 contracts -18.00 c/contract DK1 100 contracts -3.30 c/contract CN1 230 contracts -2.04 c/contract MX1 190 contracts -3.01 c/contract BSA 130 contracts -5.46 c/contract AR1 490 contracts -1.48 c/contract HR1 90 contracts -10.78 c/contract USL 220 contracts -5.69 c/contract PE1 240 contracts -6.04 c/contract -------------------------------------------------------------- v2 (crossed to complete IMMEDIATELY at 2-of-3, ~9h early) — DIFFERENT RULE, DO NOT POOL legs quoted : 35 competitive : 17 (49%) would have filled : 35 (100%) contracts sold : 350 P&L : -2.57 dollars per contract : -0.73 cents by league: CL1 30 contracts +0.53 c/contract SE1 30 contracts -0.07 c/contract DK1 30 contracts -0.25 c/contract NO1 30 contracts -0.39 c/contract AR1 30 contracts -0.73 c/contract BR2 180 contracts -0.39 c/contract CAN 20 contracts -8.00 c/contract -------------------------------------------------------------- v1 LEGACY — DIFFERENT STRATEGY, DO NOT POOL WITH THE ABOVE (flat fair+2c, uncapped so it sat above the market on ~86% of legs, 3h window, 5-min cron. Kept only for reference.) legs quoted : 123 competitive : 21 (17%) would have filled : 54 (44%) contracts sold : 540 P&L : -33.47 dollars per contract : -6.20 cents by league: KO1 30 contracts +46.00 c/contract PE1 40 contracts +11.24 c/contract BSA 110 contracts -0.92 c/contract CO1 50 contracts -5.29 c/contract CN1 40 contracts -7.75 c/contract BR2 20 contracts -17.00 c/contract DK1 10 contracts -37.00 c/contract NWSL 70 contracts -5.44 c/contract MX1 40 contracts -10.50 c/contract SE1 60 contracts -8.50 c/contract CAN 30 contracts -18.67 c/contract NO1 20 contracts -40.50 c/contract CL1 20 contracts -55.50 c/contract ---------------------------------------------------------- WITH THE COMPLETION RULE APPLIED TO LEGACY BOOKS (books that settled before mm_quoter could hedge; the rule is outcome-independent, so this is a fair retrospective, but the bid used is the LAST one logged, so it is OPTIMISTIC) as recorded : 434 fills -44.61 dollars -1.03 c/contract rule applied : 490 fills -14.06 dollars -0.29 c/contract difference : +30.55 dollars CAVEAT: fills assume we win every trade that printed at or above our ask. Real queue position would give fewer and worse fills, so treat this as the CEILING, not an estimate. emailed 324338 quote rows -> 762 distinct legs (35 completed at bid) PAPER MARKET MAKER — Kalshi soccer v3 CURRENT RULE (delayed completion: cross only inside the last hour; 0-5c price ladder) legs quoted : 571 competitive : 76 (13%) would have filled : 348 (61%) contracts sold : 3,480 P&L : -8.37 dollars per contract : -0.24 cents by league: CH1 60 contracts +25.83 c/contract NO1 60 contracts +12.00 c/contract MLS 130 contracts +5.08 c/contract KO1 240 contracts +2.69 c/contract JP1 60 contracts +7.33 c/contract SE1 100 contracts +4.10 c/contract D2 10 contracts +40.00 c/contract CL1 90 contracts +4.33 c/contract SC0 60 contracts +3.33 c/contract PL1 90 contracts +2.18 c/contract NWSL 280 contracts +0.26 c/contract CZ1 90 contracts +0.78 c/contract CAN 130 contracts +0.46 c/contract P1 30 contracts +1.00 c/contract BR2 30 contracts +0.15 c/contract CO1 290 contracts -0.16 c/contract B1 10 contracts -18.00 c/contract DK1 100 contracts -3.30 c/contract CN1 230 contracts -2.04 c/contract MX1 190 contracts -3.01 c/contract AR1 520 contracts -1.35 c/contract BSA 130 contracts -5.46 c/contract HR1 90 contracts -10.78 c/contract USL 220 contracts -5.69 c/contract PE1 240 contracts -6.04 c/contract -------------------------------------------------------------- v2 (crossed to complete IMMEDIATELY at 2-of-3, ~9h early) — DIFFERENT RULE, DO NOT POOL legs quoted : 35 competitive : 17 (49%) would have filled : 35 (100%) contracts sold : 350 P&L : -2.57 dollars per contract : -0.73 cents by league: CL1 30 contracts +0.53 c/contract SE1 30 contracts -0.07 c/contract DK1 30 contracts -0.25 c/contract NO1 30 contracts -0.39 c/contract AR1 30 contracts -0.73 c/contract BR2 180 contracts -0.39 c/contract CAN 20 contracts -8.00 c/contract -------------------------------------------------------------- v1 LEGACY — DIFFERENT STRATEGY, DO NOT POOL WITH THE ABOVE (flat fair+2c, uncapped so it sat above the market on ~86% of legs, 3h window, 5-min cron. Kept only for reference.) legs quoted : 141 competitive : 29 (21%) would have filled : 63 (45%) contracts sold : 630 P&L : -35.47 dollars per contract : -5.63 cents by league: KO1 30 contracts +46.00 c/contract PE1 40 contracts +11.24 c/contract BSA 110 contracts -0.92 c/contract AR1 30 contracts -3.67 c/contract CN1 40 contracts -7.75 c/contract BR2 20 contracts -17.00 c/contract CO1 110 contracts -3.22 c/contract DK1 10 contracts -37.00 c/contract NWSL 70 contracts -5.44 c/contract MX1 40 contracts -10.50 c/contract SE1 60 contracts -8.50 c/contract CAN 30 contracts -18.67 c/contract NO1 20 contracts -40.50 c/contract CL1 20 contracts -55.50 c/contract ---------------------------------------------------------- WITH THE COMPLETION RULE APPLIED TO LEGACY BOOKS (books that settled before mm_quoter could hedge; the rule is outcome-independent, so this is a fair retrospective, but the bid used is the LAST one logged, so it is OPTIMISTIC) as recorded : 446 fills -46.41 dollars -1.04 c/contract rule applied : 506 fills -12.89 dollars -0.25 c/contract difference : +33.52 dollars CAVEAT: fills assume we win every trade that printed at or above our ask. Real queue position would give fewer and worse fills, so treat this as the CEILING, not an estimate. 324725 quote rows -> 762 distinct legs (35 completed at bid) PAPER MARKET MAKER — Kalshi soccer v3 CURRENT RULE (delayed completion: cross only inside the last hour; 0-5c price ladder) legs quoted : 571 competitive : 76 (13%) would have filled : 348 (61%) contracts sold : 3,480 P&L : -8.37 dollars per contract : -0.24 cents by league: CH1 60 contracts +25.83 c/contract NO1 60 contracts +12.00 c/contract MLS 130 contracts +5.08 c/contract KO1 240 contracts +2.69 c/contract JP1 60 contracts +7.33 c/contract SE1 100 contracts +4.10 c/contract D2 10 contracts +40.00 c/contract CL1 90 contracts +4.33 c/contract SC0 60 contracts +3.33 c/contract PL1 90 contracts +2.18 c/contract NWSL 280 contracts +0.26 c/contract CZ1 90 contracts +0.78 c/contract CAN 130 contracts +0.46 c/contract P1 30 contracts +1.00 c/contract BR2 30 contracts +0.15 c/contract CO1 290 contracts -0.16 c/contract B1 10 contracts -18.00 c/contract DK1 100 contracts -3.30 c/contract CN1 230 contracts -2.04 c/contract MX1 190 contracts -3.01 c/contract AR1 520 contracts -1.35 c/contract BSA 130 contracts -5.46 c/contract HR1 90 contracts -10.78 c/contract USL 220 contracts -5.69 c/contract PE1 240 contracts -6.04 c/contract -------------------------------------------------------------- v2 (crossed to complete IMMEDIATELY at 2-of-3, ~9h early) — DIFFERENT RULE, DO NOT POOL legs quoted : 35 competitive : 17 (49%) would have filled : 35 (100%) contracts sold : 350 P&L : -2.57 dollars per contract : -0.73 cents by league: CL1 30 contracts +0.53 c/contract SE1 30 contracts -0.07 c/contract DK1 30 contracts -0.25 c/contract NO1 30 contracts -0.39 c/contract AR1 30 contracts -0.73 c/contract BR2 180 contracts -0.39 c/contract CAN 20 contracts -8.00 c/contract -------------------------------------------------------------- v1 LEGACY — DIFFERENT STRATEGY, DO NOT POOL WITH THE ABOVE (flat fair+2c, uncapped so it sat above the market on ~86% of legs, 3h window, 5-min cron. Kept only for reference.) legs quoted : 147 competitive : 29 (20%) would have filled : 66 (45%) contracts sold : 660 P&L : -23.07 dollars per contract : -3.50 cents by league: KO1 30 contracts +46.00 c/contract PE1 40 contracts +11.24 c/contract DK1 30 contracts +10.00 c/contract SE1 70 contracts +0.86 c/contract BSA 110 contracts -0.92 c/contract AR1 30 contracts -3.67 c/contract CN1 40 contracts -7.75 c/contract BR2 20 contracts -17.00 c/contract CO1 110 contracts -3.22 c/contract NWSL 70 contracts -5.44 c/contract MX1 40 contracts -10.50 c/contract CAN 30 contracts -18.67 c/contract NO1 20 contracts -40.50 c/contract CL1 20 contracts -55.50 c/contract ---------------------------------------------------------- WITH THE COMPLETION RULE APPLIED TO LEGACY BOOKS (books that settled before mm_quoter could hedge; the rule is outcome-independent, so this is a fair retrospective, but the bid used is the LAST one logged, so it is OPTIMISTIC) as recorded : 449 fills -34.01 dollars -0.76 c/contract rule applied : 510 fills -6.95 dollars -0.14 c/contract difference : +27.06 dollars CAVEAT: fills assume we win every trade that printed at or above our ask. Real queue position would give fewer and worse fills, so treat this as the CEILING, not an estimate. 324725 quote rows -> 762 distinct legs (35 completed at bid) PAPER MARKET MAKER — Kalshi soccer v3 CURRENT RULE (delayed completion: cross only inside the last hour; 0-5c price ladder) legs quoted : 571 competitive : 76 (13%) would have filled : 348 (61%) contracts sold : 3,480 P&L : -8.37 dollars per contract : -0.24 cents by league: CH1 60 contracts +25.83 c/contract NO1 60 contracts +12.00 c/contract MLS 130 contracts +5.08 c/contract KO1 240 contracts +2.69 c/contract JP1 60 contracts +7.33 c/contract SE1 100 contracts +4.10 c/contract D2 10 contracts +40.00 c/contract CL1 90 contracts +4.33 c/contract SC0 60 contracts +3.33 c/contract PL1 90 contracts +2.18 c/contract NWSL 280 contracts +0.26 c/contract CZ1 90 contracts +0.78 c/contract CAN 130 contracts +0.46 c/contract P1 30 contracts +1.00 c/contract BR2 30 contracts +0.15 c/contract CO1 290 contracts -0.16 c/contract B1 10 contracts -18.00 c/contract DK1 100 contracts -3.30 c/contract CN1 230 contracts -2.04 c/contract MX1 190 contracts -3.01 c/contract AR1 520 contracts -1.35 c/contract BSA 130 contracts -5.46 c/contract HR1 90 contracts -10.78 c/contract USL 220 contracts -5.69 c/contract PE1 240 contracts -6.04 c/contract -------------------------------------------------------------- v2 (crossed to complete IMMEDIATELY at 2-of-3, ~9h early) — DIFFERENT RULE, DO NOT POOL legs quoted : 35 competitive : 17 (49%) would have filled : 35 (100%) contracts sold : 350 P&L : -2.57 dollars per contract : -0.73 cents by league: CL1 30 contracts +0.53 c/contract SE1 30 contracts -0.07 c/contract DK1 30 contracts -0.25 c/contract NO1 30 contracts -0.39 c/contract AR1 30 contracts -0.73 c/contract BR2 180 contracts -0.39 c/contract CAN 20 contracts -8.00 c/contract -------------------------------------------------------------- v1 LEGACY — DIFFERENT STRATEGY, DO NOT POOL WITH THE ABOVE (flat fair+2c, uncapped so it sat above the market on ~86% of legs, 3h window, 5-min cron. Kept only for reference.) legs quoted : 147 competitive : 29 (20%) would have filled : 66 (45%) contracts sold : 660 P&L : -23.07 dollars per contract : -3.50 cents by league: KO1 30 contracts +46.00 c/contract PE1 40 contracts +11.24 c/contract DK1 30 contracts +10.00 c/contract SE1 70 contracts +0.86 c/contract BSA 110 contracts -0.92 c/contract AR1 30 contracts -3.67 c/contract CN1 40 contracts -7.75 c/contract BR2 20 contracts -17.00 c/contract CO1 110 contracts -3.22 c/contract NWSL 70 contracts -5.44 c/contract MX1 40 contracts -10.50 c/contract CAN 30 contracts -18.67 c/contract NO1 20 contracts -40.50 c/contract CL1 20 contracts -55.50 c/contract ---------------------------------------------------------- WITH THE COMPLETION RULE APPLIED TO LEGACY BOOKS (books that settled before mm_quoter could hedge; the rule is outcome-independent, so this is a fair retrospective, but the bid used is the LAST one logged, so it is OPTIMISTIC) as recorded : 449 fills -34.01 dollars -0.76 c/contract rule applied : 510 fills -6.95 dollars -0.14 c/contract difference : +27.06 dollars CAVEAT: fills assume we win every trade that printed at or above our ask. Real queue position would give fewer and worse fills, so treat this as the CEILING, not an estimate. 324725 quote rows -> 762 distinct legs (35 completed at bid) PAPER MARKET MAKER — Kalshi soccer v4 CURRENT RULE (v3 plus the MIN_LEG_VOLUME liquidity gate: quote only books whose thinnest leg has traded volume >= gate) legs quoted : 24 competitive : 8 (33%) would have filled : 12 (50%) contracts sold : 120 P&L : +10.40 dollars per contract : +8.67 cents by league: DK1 20 contracts +33.50 c/contract SE1 10 contracts +57.00 c/contract CO1 60 contracts -1.50 c/contract AR1 30 contracts -3.67 c/contract -------------------------------------------------------------- v3 (delayed completion, NO liquidity gate) — DIFFERENT RULE, DO NOT POOL legs quoted : 571 competitive : 76 (13%) would have filled : 348 (61%) contracts sold : 3,480 P&L : -8.37 dollars per contract : -0.24 cents by league: CH1 60 contracts +25.83 c/contract NO1 60 contracts +12.00 c/contract MLS 130 contracts +5.08 c/contract KO1 240 contracts +2.69 c/contract JP1 60 contracts +7.33 c/contract SE1 100 contracts +4.10 c/contract D2 10 contracts +40.00 c/contract CL1 90 contracts +4.33 c/contract SC0 60 contracts +3.33 c/contract PL1 90 contracts +2.18 c/contract NWSL 280 contracts +0.26 c/contract CZ1 90 contracts +0.78 c/contract CAN 130 contracts +0.46 c/contract P1 30 contracts +1.00 c/contract BR2 30 contracts +0.15 c/contract CO1 290 contracts -0.16 c/contract B1 10 contracts -18.00 c/contract DK1 100 contracts -3.30 c/contract CN1 230 contracts -2.04 c/contract MX1 190 contracts -3.01 c/contract AR1 520 contracts -1.35 c/contract BSA 130 contracts -5.46 c/contract HR1 90 contracts -10.78 c/contract USL 220 contracts -5.69 c/contract PE1 240 contracts -6.04 c/contract -------------------------------------------------------------- v2 (crossed to complete IMMEDIATELY at 2-of-3, ~9h early) — DIFFERENT RULE, DO NOT POOL legs quoted : 35 competitive : 17 (49%) would have filled : 35 (100%) contracts sold : 350 P&L : -2.57 dollars per contract : -0.73 cents by league: CL1 30 contracts +0.53 c/contract SE1 30 contracts -0.07 c/contract DK1 30 contracts -0.25 c/contract NO1 30 contracts -0.39 c/contract AR1 30 contracts -0.73 c/contract BR2 180 contracts -0.39 c/contract CAN 20 contracts -8.00 c/contract -------------------------------------------------------------- v1 LEGACY — DIFFERENT STRATEGY, DO NOT POOL WITH THE ABOVE (flat fair+2c, uncapped so it sat above the market on ~86% of legs, 3h window, 5-min cron. Kept only for reference.) legs quoted : 123 competitive : 21 (17%) would have filled : 54 (44%) contracts sold : 540 P&L : -33.47 dollars per contract : -6.20 cents by league: KO1 30 contracts +46.00 c/contract PE1 40 contracts +11.24 c/contract BSA 110 contracts -0.92 c/contract CO1 50 contracts -5.29 c/contract CN1 40 contracts -7.75 c/contract BR2 20 contracts -17.00 c/contract DK1 10 contracts -37.00 c/contract NWSL 70 contracts -5.44 c/contract MX1 40 contracts -10.50 c/contract SE1 60 contracts -8.50 c/contract CAN 30 contracts -18.67 c/contract NO1 20 contracts -40.50 c/contract CL1 20 contracts -55.50 c/contract ---------------------------------------------------------- WITH THE COMPLETION RULE APPLIED TO LEGACY BOOKS (books that settled before mm_quoter could hedge; the rule is outcome-independent, so this is a fair retrospective, but the bid used is the LAST one logged, so it is OPTIMISTIC) as recorded : 449 fills -34.01 dollars -0.76 c/contract rule applied : 510 fills -6.95 dollars -0.14 c/contract difference : +27.06 dollars CAVEAT: fills assume we win every trade that printed at or above our ask. Real queue position would give fewer and worse fills, so treat this as the CEILING, not an estimate. 327026 quote rows -> 777 distinct legs (35 completed at bid) PAPER MARKET MAKER — Kalshi soccer v4 CURRENT RULE (v3 plus the MIN_LEG_VOLUME liquidity gate: quote only books whose thinnest leg has traded volume >= gate) legs quoted : 27 competitive : 8 (30%) would have filled : 13 (48%) contracts sold : 130 P&L : +5.60 dollars per contract : +4.31 cents by league: DK1 20 contracts +33.50 c/contract SE1 10 contracts +57.00 c/contract CO1 60 contracts -1.50 c/contract AR1 30 contracts -3.67 c/contract JP1 10 contracts -48.00 c/contract -------------------------------------------------------------- v3 (delayed completion, NO liquidity gate) — DIFFERENT RULE, DO NOT POOL legs quoted : 571 competitive : 76 (13%) would have filled : 347 (61%) contracts sold : 3,470 P&L : -10.47 dollars per contract : -0.30 cents by league: CH1 60 contracts +25.83 c/contract NO1 60 contracts +12.00 c/contract MLS 130 contracts +5.08 c/contract KO1 240 contracts +2.69 c/contract JP1 60 contracts +7.33 c/contract SE1 100 contracts +4.10 c/contract D2 10 contracts +40.00 c/contract CL1 90 contracts +4.33 c/contract SC0 60 contracts +3.33 c/contract PL1 90 contracts +2.18 c/contract CZ1 90 contracts +0.78 c/contract CAN 130 contracts +0.46 c/contract P1 30 contracts +1.00 c/contract BR2 30 contracts +0.15 c/contract CO1 290 contracts -0.16 c/contract NWSL 270 contracts -0.51 c/contract B1 10 contracts -18.00 c/contract DK1 100 contracts -3.30 c/contract CN1 230 contracts -2.04 c/contract MX1 190 contracts -3.01 c/contract AR1 520 contracts -1.35 c/contract BSA 130 contracts -5.46 c/contract HR1 90 contracts -10.78 c/contract USL 220 contracts -5.69 c/contract PE1 240 contracts -6.04 c/contract -------------------------------------------------------------- v2 (crossed to complete IMMEDIATELY at 2-of-3, ~9h early) — DIFFERENT RULE, DO NOT POOL legs quoted : 35 competitive : 17 (49%) would have filled : 35 (100%) contracts sold : 350 P&L : -2.57 dollars per contract : -0.73 cents by league: CL1 30 contracts +0.53 c/contract SE1 30 contracts -0.07 c/contract DK1 30 contracts -0.25 c/contract NO1 30 contracts -0.39 c/contract AR1 30 contracts -0.73 c/contract BR2 180 contracts -0.39 c/contract CAN 20 contracts -8.00 c/contract -------------------------------------------------------------- v1 LEGACY — DIFFERENT STRATEGY, DO NOT POOL WITH THE ABOVE (flat fair+2c, uncapped so it sat above the market on ~86% of legs, 3h window, 5-min cron. Kept only for reference.) legs quoted : 123 competitive : 21 (17%) would have filled : 54 (44%) contracts sold : 540 P&L : -33.47 dollars per contract : -6.20 cents by league: KO1 30 contracts +46.00 c/contract PE1 40 contracts +11.24 c/contract BSA 110 contracts -0.92 c/contract CO1 50 contracts -5.29 c/contract CN1 40 contracts -7.75 c/contract BR2 20 contracts -17.00 c/contract DK1 10 contracts -37.00 c/contract NWSL 70 contracts -5.44 c/contract MX1 40 contracts -10.50 c/contract SE1 60 contracts -8.50 c/contract CAN 30 contracts -18.67 c/contract NO1 20 contracts -40.50 c/contract CL1 20 contracts -55.50 c/contract ---------------------------------------------------------- WITH THE COMPLETION RULE APPLIED TO LEGACY BOOKS (books that settled before mm_quoter could hedge; the rule is outcome-independent, so this is a fair retrospective, but the bid used is the LAST one logged, so it is OPTIMISTIC) as recorded : 449 fills -40.91 dollars -0.91 c/contract rule applied : 509 fills -15.93 dollars -0.31 c/contract difference : +24.98 dollars CAVEAT: fills assume we win every trade that printed at or above our ask. Real queue position would give fewer and worse fills, so treat this as the CEILING, not an estimate. 332907 quote rows -> 840 distinct legs (35 completed at bid) PAPER MARKET MAKER — Kalshi soccer v4 CURRENT RULE (v3 plus the MIN_LEG_VOLUME liquidity gate: quote only books whose thinnest leg has traded volume >= gate) legs quoted : 93 competitive : 36 (39%) would have filled : 62 (67%) contracts sold : 620 P&L : +0.00 dollars per contract : +0.00 cents by league: DK1 50 contracts +13.80 c/contract SE1 40 contracts +14.50 c/contract CN1 40 contracts +11.50 c/contract NWSL 120 contracts +0.75 c/contract PE1 30 contracts +1.00 c/contract CL1 30 contracts +0.67 c/contract E1 30 contracts +0.67 c/contract HR1 20 contracts -4.00 c/contract CO1 60 contracts -1.50 c/contract JP1 100 contracts -1.50 c/contract BR2 20 contracts -11.50 c/contract AR1 50 contracts -7.40 c/contract D2 20 contracts -19.00 c/contract NO1 10 contracts -59.00 c/contract -------------------------------------------------------------- v3 (delayed completion, NO liquidity gate) — DIFFERENT RULE, DO NOT POOL legs quoted : 571 competitive : 76 (13%) would have filled : 348 (61%) contracts sold : 3,480 P&L : -8.37 dollars per contract : -0.24 cents by league: CH1 60 contracts +25.83 c/contract NO1 60 contracts +12.00 c/contract MLS 130 contracts +5.08 c/contract KO1 240 contracts +2.69 c/contract JP1 60 contracts +7.33 c/contract SE1 100 contracts +4.10 c/contract D2 10 contracts +40.00 c/contract CL1 90 contracts +4.33 c/contract SC0 60 contracts +3.33 c/contract PL1 90 contracts +2.18 c/contract NWSL 280 contracts +0.26 c/contract CZ1 90 contracts +0.78 c/contract CAN 130 contracts +0.46 c/contract P1 30 contracts +1.00 c/contract BR2 30 contracts +0.15 c/contract CO1 290 contracts -0.16 c/contract B1 10 contracts -18.00 c/contract DK1 100 contracts -3.30 c/contract CN1 230 contracts -2.04 c/contract MX1 190 contracts -3.01 c/contract AR1 520 contracts -1.35 c/contract BSA 130 contracts -5.46 c/contract HR1 90 contracts -10.78 c/contract USL 220 contracts -5.69 c/contract PE1 240 contracts -6.04 c/contract -------------------------------------------------------------- v2 (crossed to complete IMMEDIATELY at 2-of-3, ~9h early) — DIFFERENT RULE, DO NOT POOL legs quoted : 35 competitive : 17 (49%) would have filled : 35 (100%) contracts sold : 350 P&L : -2.57 dollars per contract : -0.73 cents by league: CL1 30 contracts +0.53 c/contract SE1 30 contracts -0.07 c/contract DK1 30 contracts -0.25 c/contract NO1 30 contracts -0.39 c/contract AR1 30 contracts -0.73 c/contract BR2 180 contracts -0.39 c/contract CAN 20 contracts -8.00 c/contract -------------------------------------------------------------- v1 LEGACY — DIFFERENT STRATEGY, DO NOT POOL WITH THE ABOVE (flat fair+2c, uncapped so it sat above the market on ~86% of legs, 3h window, 5-min cron. Kept only for reference.) legs quoted : 123 competitive : 21 (17%) would have filled : 54 (44%) contracts sold : 540 P&L : -33.47 dollars per contract : -6.20 cents by league: KO1 30 contracts +46.00 c/contract PE1 40 contracts +11.24 c/contract BSA 110 contracts -0.92 c/contract CO1 50 contracts -5.29 c/contract CN1 40 contracts -7.75 c/contract BR2 20 contracts -17.00 c/contract DK1 10 contracts -37.00 c/contract NWSL 70 contracts -5.44 c/contract MX1 40 contracts -10.50 c/contract SE1 60 contracts -8.50 c/contract CAN 30 contracts -18.67 c/contract NO1 20 contracts -40.50 c/contract CL1 20 contracts -55.50 c/contract ---------------------------------------------------------- WITH THE COMPLETION RULE APPLIED TO LEGACY BOOKS (books that settled before mm_quoter could hedge; the rule is outcome-independent, so this is a fair retrospective, but the bid used is the LAST one logged, so it is OPTIMISTIC) as recorded : 499 fills -44.41 dollars -0.89 c/contract rule applied : 568 fills -17.06 dollars -0.30 c/contract difference : +27.35 dollars CAVEAT: fills assume we win every trade that printed at or above our ask. Real queue position would give fewer and worse fills, so treat this as the CEILING, not an estimate. 335625 quote rows -> 870 distinct legs (35 completed at bid) PAPER MARKET MAKER — Kalshi soccer v4 CURRENT RULE (v3 plus the MIN_LEG_VOLUME liquidity gate: quote only books whose thinnest leg has traded volume >= gate) legs quoted : 115 competitive : 47 (41%) would have filled : 74 (64%) contracts sold : 740 P&L : +13.30 dollars per contract : +1.80 cents by league: MLS 60 contracts +19.00 c/contract CN1 50 contracts +15.20 c/contract DK1 50 contracts +13.80 c/contract SE1 40 contracts +14.50 c/contract NWSL 150 contracts +0.80 c/contract CL1 30 contracts +0.67 c/contract E1 30 contracts +0.67 c/contract HR1 20 contracts -4.00 c/contract CO1 60 contracts -1.50 c/contract PE1 50 contracts -2.20 c/contract JP1 100 contracts -1.50 c/contract BR2 20 contracts -11.50 c/contract AR1 50 contracts -7.40 c/contract D2 20 contracts -19.00 c/contract NO1 10 contracts -59.00 c/contract -------------------------------------------------------------- v3 (delayed completion, NO liquidity gate) — DIFFERENT RULE, DO NOT POOL legs quoted : 571 competitive : 76 (13%) would have filled : 348 (61%) contracts sold : 3,480 P&L : -8.37 dollars per contract : -0.24 cents by league: CH1 60 contracts +25.83 c/contract NO1 60 contracts +12.00 c/contract MLS 130 contracts +5.08 c/contract KO1 240 contracts +2.69 c/contract JP1 60 contracts +7.33 c/contract SE1 100 contracts +4.10 c/contract D2 10 contracts +40.00 c/contract CL1 90 contracts +4.33 c/contract SC0 60 contracts +3.33 c/contract PL1 90 contracts +2.18 c/contract NWSL 280 contracts +0.26 c/contract CZ1 90 contracts +0.78 c/contract CAN 130 contracts +0.46 c/contract P1 30 contracts +1.00 c/contract BR2 30 contracts +0.15 c/contract CO1 290 contracts -0.16 c/contract B1 10 contracts -18.00 c/contract DK1 100 contracts -3.30 c/contract CN1 230 contracts -2.04 c/contract MX1 190 contracts -3.01 c/contract AR1 520 contracts -1.35 c/contract BSA 130 contracts -5.46 c/contract HR1 90 contracts -10.78 c/contract USL 220 contracts -5.69 c/contract PE1 240 contracts -6.04 c/contract -------------------------------------------------------------- v2 (crossed to complete IMMEDIATELY at 2-of-3, ~9h early) — DIFFERENT RULE, DO NOT POOL legs quoted : 35 competitive : 17 (49%) would have filled : 35 (100%) contracts sold : 350 P&L : -2.57 dollars per contract : -0.73 cents by league: CL1 30 contracts +0.53 c/contract SE1 30 contracts -0.07 c/contract DK1 30 contracts -0.25 c/contract NO1 30 contracts -0.39 c/contract AR1 30 contracts -0.73 c/contract BR2 180 contracts -0.39 c/contract CAN 20 contracts -8.00 c/contract -------------------------------------------------------------- v1 LEGACY — DIFFERENT STRATEGY, DO NOT POOL WITH THE ABOVE (flat fair+2c, uncapped so it sat above the market on ~86% of legs, 3h window, 5-min cron. Kept only for reference.) legs quoted : 123 competitive : 21 (17%) would have filled : 54 (44%) contracts sold : 540 P&L : -33.47 dollars per contract : -6.20 cents by league: KO1 30 contracts +46.00 c/contract PE1 40 contracts +11.24 c/contract BSA 110 contracts -0.92 c/contract CO1 50 contracts -5.29 c/contract CN1 40 contracts -7.75 c/contract BR2 20 contracts -17.00 c/contract DK1 10 contracts -37.00 c/contract NWSL 70 contracts -5.44 c/contract MX1 40 contracts -10.50 c/contract SE1 60 contracts -8.50 c/contract CAN 30 contracts -18.67 c/contract NO1 20 contracts -40.50 c/contract CL1 20 contracts -55.50 c/contract ---------------------------------------------------------- WITH THE COMPLETION RULE APPLIED TO LEGACY BOOKS (books that settled before mm_quoter could hedge; the rule is outcome-independent, so this is a fair retrospective, but the bid used is the LAST one logged, so it is OPTIMISTIC) as recorded : 511 fills -31.11 dollars -0.61 c/contract rule applied : 582 fills -9.50 dollars -0.16 c/contract difference : +21.61 dollars CAVEAT: fills assume we win every trade that printed at or above our ask. Real queue position would give fewer and worse fills, so treat this as the CEILING, not an estimate. 345643 quote rows -> 924 distinct legs (36 completed at bid) PAPER MARKET MAKER — Kalshi soccer v4 CURRENT RULE (v3 plus the MIN_LEG_VOLUME liquidity gate: quote only books whose thinnest leg has traded volume >= gate) legs quoted : 179 competitive : 71 (40%) would have filled : 120 (67%) contracts sold : 1,200 P&L : +12.60 dollars per contract : +1.05 cents by league: CL1 50 contracts +16.40 c/contract CN1 50 contracts +15.20 c/contract N1 10 contracts +73.00 c/contract DK1 50 contracts +13.80 c/contract SE1 40 contracts +14.50 c/contract MLS 150 contracts +2.60 c/contract BSA 60 contracts +5.50 c/contract KO1 30 contracts +6.33 c/contract NWSL 150 contracts +0.80 c/contract MX1 90 contracts +1.11 c/contract E1 30 contracts +0.67 c/contract HR1 20 contracts -4.00 c/contract CO1 60 contracts -1.50 c/contract JP1 100 contracts -1.50 c/contract PE1 140 contracts -1.64 c/contract SP1 50 contracts -4.60 c/contract BR2 20 contracts -11.50 c/contract D2 20 contracts -19.00 c/contract PL1 10 contracts -57.00 c/contract NO1 10 contracts -59.00 c/contract AR1 60 contracts -15.33 c/contract -------------------------------------------------------------- v3 (delayed completion, NO liquidity gate) — DIFFERENT RULE, DO NOT POOL legs quoted : 572 competitive : 76 (13%) would have filled : 349 (61%) contracts sold : 3,490 P&L : -5.91 dollars per contract : -0.17 cents by league: CH1 60 contracts +25.83 c/contract MLS 140 contracts +6.47 c/contract NO1 60 contracts +12.00 c/contract KO1 240 contracts +2.69 c/contract JP1 60 contracts +7.33 c/contract SE1 100 contracts +4.10 c/contract D2 10 contracts +40.00 c/contract CL1 90 contracts +4.33 c/contract SC0 60 contracts +3.33 c/contract PL1 90 contracts +2.18 c/contract NWSL 280 contracts +0.26 c/contract CZ1 90 contracts +0.78 c/contract CAN 130 contracts +0.46 c/contract P1 30 contracts +1.00 c/contract BR2 30 contracts +0.15 c/contract CO1 290 contracts -0.16 c/contract B1 10 contracts -18.00 c/contract DK1 100 contracts -3.30 c/contract CN1 230 contracts -2.04 c/contract MX1 190 contracts -3.01 c/contract AR1 520 contracts -1.35 c/contract BSA 130 contracts -5.46 c/contract HR1 90 contracts -10.78 c/contract USL 220 contracts -5.69 c/contract PE1 240 contracts -6.04 c/contract -------------------------------------------------------------- v2 (crossed to complete IMMEDIATELY at 2-of-3, ~9h early) — DIFFERENT RULE, DO NOT POOL legs quoted : 35 competitive : 17 (49%) would have filled : 35 (100%) contracts sold : 350 P&L : -2.57 dollars per contract : -0.73 cents by league: CL1 30 contracts +0.53 c/contract SE1 30 contracts -0.07 c/contract DK1 30 contracts -0.25 c/contract NO1 30 contracts -0.39 c/contract AR1 30 contracts -0.73 c/contract BR2 180 contracts -0.39 c/contract CAN 20 contracts -8.00 c/contract -------------------------------------------------------------- v1 LEGACY — DIFFERENT STRATEGY, DO NOT POOL WITH THE ABOVE (flat fair+2c, uncapped so it sat above the market on ~86% of legs, 3h window, 5-min cron. Kept only for reference.) legs quoted : 123 competitive : 21 (17%) would have filled : 54 (44%) contracts sold : 540 P&L : -33.47 dollars per contract : -6.20 cents by league: KO1 30 contracts +46.00 c/contract PE1 40 contracts +11.24 c/contract BSA 110 contracts -0.92 c/contract CO1 50 contracts -5.29 c/contract CN1 40 contracts -7.75 c/contract BR2 20 contracts -17.00 c/contract DK1 10 contracts -37.00 c/contract NWSL 70 contracts -5.44 c/contract MX1 40 contracts -10.50 c/contract SE1 60 contracts -8.50 c/contract CAN 30 contracts -18.67 c/contract NO1 20 contracts -40.50 c/contract CL1 20 contracts -55.50 c/contract ---------------------------------------------------------- WITH THE COMPLETION RULE APPLIED TO LEGACY BOOKS (books that settled before mm_quoter could hedge; the rule is outcome-independent, so this is a fair retrospective, but the bid used is the LAST one logged, so it is OPTIMISTIC) as recorded : 558 fills -29.34 dollars -0.53 c/contract rule applied : 638 fills -13.41 dollars -0.21 c/contract difference : +15.94 dollars CAVEAT: fills assume we win every trade that printed at or above our ask. Real queue position would give fewer and worse fills, so treat this as the CEILING, not an estimate. 349967 quote rows -> 936 distinct legs (36 completed at bid) PAPER MARKET MAKER — Kalshi soccer v4 CURRENT RULE (v3 plus the MIN_LEG_VOLUME liquidity gate: quote only books whose thinnest leg has traded volume >= gate) legs quoted : 194 competitive : 75 (39%) would have filled : 125 (64%) contracts sold : 1,250 P&L : +0.70 dollars per contract : +0.06 cents by league: CL1 50 contracts +16.40 c/contract CN1 50 contracts +15.20 c/contract N1 10 contracts +73.00 c/contract DK1 50 contracts +13.80 c/contract SE1 40 contracts +14.50 c/contract MLS 150 contracts +2.60 c/contract BSA 60 contracts +5.50 c/contract KO1 30 contracts +6.33 c/contract NWSL 150 contracts +0.80 c/contract E1 30 contracts +0.67 c/contract HR1 20 contracts -4.00 c/contract CO1 60 contracts -1.50 c/contract JP1 100 contracts -1.50 c/contract PE1 140 contracts -1.64 c/contract BR2 20 contracts -11.50 c/contract SP1 50 contracts -4.60 c/contract D2 20 contracts -19.00 c/contract MX1 130 contracts -3.77 c/contract PL1 10 contracts -57.00 c/contract NO1 10 contracts -59.00 c/contract AR1 70 contracts -21.71 c/contract -------------------------------------------------------------- v3 (delayed completion, NO liquidity gate) — DIFFERENT RULE, DO NOT POOL legs quoted : 572 competitive : 76 (13%) would have filled : 349 (61%) contracts sold : 3,490 P&L : -5.91 dollars per contract : -0.17 cents by league: CH1 60 contracts +25.83 c/contract MLS 140 contracts +6.47 c/contract NO1 60 contracts +12.00 c/contract KO1 240 contracts +2.69 c/contract JP1 60 contracts +7.33 c/contract SE1 100 contracts +4.10 c/contract D2 10 contracts +40.00 c/contract CL1 90 contracts +4.33 c/contract SC0 60 contracts +3.33 c/contract PL1 90 contracts +2.18 c/contract NWSL 280 contracts +0.26 c/contract CZ1 90 contracts +0.78 c/contract CAN 130 contracts +0.46 c/contract P1 30 contracts +1.00 c/contract BR2 30 contracts +0.15 c/contract CO1 290 contracts -0.16 c/contract B1 10 contracts -18.00 c/contract DK1 100 contracts -3.30 c/contract CN1 230 contracts -2.04 c/contract MX1 190 contracts -3.01 c/contract AR1 520 contracts -1.35 c/contract BSA 130 contracts -5.46 c/contract HR1 90 contracts -10.78 c/contract USL 220 contracts -5.69 c/contract PE1 240 contracts -6.04 c/contract -------------------------------------------------------------- v2 (crossed to complete IMMEDIATELY at 2-of-3, ~9h early) — DIFFERENT RULE, DO NOT POOL legs quoted : 35 competitive : 17 (49%) would have filled : 35 (100%) contracts sold : 350 P&L : -2.57 dollars per contract : -0.73 cents by league: CL1 30 contracts +0.53 c/contract SE1 30 contracts -0.07 c/contract DK1 30 contracts -0.25 c/contract NO1 30 contracts -0.39 c/contract AR1 30 contracts -0.73 c/contract BR2 180 contracts -0.39 c/contract CAN 20 contracts -8.00 c/contract -------------------------------------------------------------- v1 LEGACY — DIFFERENT STRATEGY, DO NOT POOL WITH THE ABOVE (flat fair+2c, uncapped so it sat above the market on ~86% of legs, 3h window, 5-min cron. Kept only for reference.) legs quoted : 123 competitive : 21 (17%) would have filled : 54 (44%) contracts sold : 540 P&L : -33.47 dollars per contract : -6.20 cents by league: KO1 30 contracts +46.00 c/contract PE1 40 contracts +11.24 c/contract BSA 110 contracts -0.92 c/contract CO1 50 contracts -5.29 c/contract CN1 40 contracts -7.75 c/contract BR2 20 contracts -17.00 c/contract DK1 10 contracts -37.00 c/contract NWSL 70 contracts -5.44 c/contract MX1 40 contracts -10.50 c/contract SE1 60 contracts -8.50 c/contract CAN 30 contracts -18.67 c/contract NO1 20 contracts -40.50 c/contract CL1 20 contracts -55.50 c/contract ---------------------------------------------------------- WITH THE COMPLETION RULE APPLIED TO LEGACY BOOKS (books that settled before mm_quoter could hedge; the rule is outcome-independent, so this is a fair retrospective, but the bid used is the LAST one logged, so it is OPTIMISTIC) as recorded : 563 fills -41.24 dollars -0.73 c/contract rule applied : 643 fills -25.31 dollars -0.39 c/contract difference : +15.94 dollars CAVEAT: fills assume we win every trade that printed at or above our ask. Real queue position would give fewer and worse fills, so treat this as the CEILING, not an estimate.