a 3j@sdZddlZddlZddlZddlZddlmZmZmZmZddl m Z ddl m Z ej ddej dde dZe d Ze d Zd ejvZd \ZZd ZdZdZddZddZddZddZddZdtddZddZddZ d d!Z!d"d#Z"d$d%Z#d&d'Z$d(d)Z%d*d+Z&gd,Z'd-Z(d.d/hZ)d0d1Z*d2d3Z+d4Z,d5Z-d6d7Z.d8d9Z/dud:d;Z0dZ2d?Z3d@dAZ4dvdCdDZ5dwdEdFZ6dxdHdIZ7dJdKZ8dydLdMZ9dNdOZ:dPZ;dQZd{dUdVZ?dWdXZ@dYdZZAd[d\ZBeCd]krd^ejvrxe:ZDejEeDd_d`e$daFdbZGdceHIddZJeGrXeJdeeGdfdgeGdhdidj7ZJeAeJeBeDdkedleJnldmejvrddnlKmLZLeLdceHIdde@edon0e:ZMejEeMd_d`edpedqeNeMdrdsdS)|a  Soccer betting dashboard -- generates a self-contained HTML snapshot of everything worth watching, from local state + live venue APIs. Answers the questions that otherwise get asked ad-hoc: - what are today's/tomorrow's xlow signals, and did they actually trade? - what real positions are open, on which venue, at what cost/value? - how is the frozen xlow forward test tracking? (its n>=100 checkpoint was passed long ago -- the open question is the review it was meant to trigger) - which leagues are actually working end-to-end, and which are blocked? Usage: python main\dashboard.py -> writes E:\soccer\dashboard.html python main\dashboard.py --quiet -> no stdout chatter (for scheduling) Read-only. Places no orders, mutates no state. N)date timedeltadatetimetimezone)Path) defaultdictzE:\soccer\mainzE:\soccer\researchzE:\soccer\datazE:\soccer\live_datazE:\soccer\dashboard.htmlz--quietg?gQ?$@g@@2cGsts t|dSN)QUIETprint)armain/dashboard.pylogFsrcCs4ztt|jddWSty.|YS0dS)Nutf-8encoding)jsonloadsr read_text Exception)pdefaultrrr_jloadKs rc Csz"ddl}|ddgpg}Wn<ty^}z$dt|dddgWYd}~Sd}~00t|dkrpgSdd }g}t|d d d D]}|d d}|||dddddd}z|jdd|iddpg}|D]F} || d} | dkr |dd7<q| dkr|dd7<qt|jddd|dddpFg|d<Wn:ty}z t|dd|d<WYd}~n d}~00||q|S)asCash / positions / resting orders per Kalshi subaccount. THE APP CANNOT SHOW THIS. Kalshi's Portfolio screen displays the PRIMARY subaccount only -- the arrow beside it toggles deposit/withdraw, it is not an account switcher (checked with the user 2026-08-24). So a $5 transfer to subaccount 1 read as a -$4.46 portfolio loss in the app, and anything that ever runs on a non-primary subaccount would be invisible on the phone. This panel is the only place it can be seen. Reads are subaccount-scoped by the API, and the DEFAULT for positions and orders is subaccount 0 -- byte-identical to passing subaccount=0, which is why the rest of this file needed no changes when subaccount 1 was created. 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Only arms the maker still recognises are returned: the retired vol/ko SELECTION experiment wrote into the same log, and a stale label rendered as a current one would be worse than no label. Zresearchzmm_arm_log.csv>ZbudgetZtieloadZlatch3rbrnewlinereventZarmN)DATAparentopencsv DictReaderr*OSErrorr$)pathliverFfhrrrr arm_labelss4rycCsttdg}ttdg}g}|D],}|d|vr8q$|t|t||dq$|D]`}|d|vrjqV|d}|dur|d}|dur|d}|t||d|d dqV|jd d d |S) Nzpending_bets.jsonzbet_history.jsonr)settledZ kalshi_pnlZpoly_pnlpnlftr)r|r{cSs|d|d|dfS)Nrdivmatchr)rxrrrr+r,zsignals_for..r-)rror*rC_sig_row _provisionalsort)Zdatesftr_mapZpendZhistrowsrGr{rrr signals_fors$    rcst|dpgs|dfSz(ddlm}m}t|t|OWntyXYn0zddlmWntydYn0fddfdd |D}|t|t|fS) abSignals in the live scope, plus how many were dropped. The signals panel is an OPERATIONAL view -- what the rule is doing now -- so leagues outside the scope do not belong in it (user, 2026-08-23). They are not lost: they keep firing into pending_bets and the forward test, and the by-league table still carries them (the "outside scope, tracking" summary row was removed from the page 2026-09-12; the series survives in forward_test_unique_book_log.csv). Returns (kept, hidden_count) rather than filtering silently -- a table that quietly drops rows is how you end up trusting a number that is missing its denominator. The count is rendered next to the heading. Falls back to NO filtering if the scope is unavailable (forward_test error), because showing everything is a much smaller failure than showing nothing. bt_leaguesrAUTO_TRADE_LEAGUESAUTO_TRADE_EXCLUDE_LEAGUESXLOW_PRICE_FLOORg?cs(|dvrdSt|}|dup&|kS)Nr}F)_row_askrxr)_floorscoperr_in_viewZs zscope_signals.._in_viewcsg|]}|r|qSrrrTrx)rrr ar,z!scope_signals..) setr* daily_signalsrrrforward_test_unique_bookrrA)rftrrZkeptr)rrrr scope_signals s   rcCsP|ddkr|dn|d}|durL|ddurB|dn|d}|S)zThe price a signal fired at, on the venue it fired on. Mirrors the Ask column's own resolution in the signals table exactly, so the filter above can never disagree with the number the page prints. cheapKalshiask_kask_pNr)rrrrres""rc Cs|sdS|d|d}}|d|d}}|||||fpT||||f}|s^dS|dpjd}d|vr|d k}nd |vr|d k}ndS||rd nd ddS)a'A pending bet's result read off the match record, or None. Same shape as the settled path, plus provisional=True. `pnl` carries only a SIGN: the table scores at PAPER_NOTIONAL off the ask exactly as it does for reconciled bets, so the two paths cannot disagree about the money. Nrr}homeawaybetrbHOMEHAWAYA?T)r|r{ provisional)r*upper) rGrgdlghmawr|rwonrrrrqs"  rc Csz0t|}d|krdkr.nn t|dWSWnttfyFYn0zHt|}t|d}|d|}d|kr~dkrnn t|dWSWnttfyYn0z*t|}d|krdkrnn|ndWSttfyYdS0dS)aeThe price the SIGNAL fired at, for the paper/research view. The rule evaluates CLV on the MID. `*_ask` is the quoted ask at that instant, and on a normal book it sits a cent away. On an empty book it does not: FC Sion v FC Thun had a Poly-US mid near 0.50 (giving clv_polyus +7.8%) and an ask of 0.99, so the row rendered "0.99 (P) +7.8%" -- a price and an edge that describe different prices, and a paper result scored at 0.99 instead of at the price the rule actually saw. Order of preference: 1. the mid recorded at signal time (entry_k_mid / entry_p_mid) 2. the price implied by fair and the stored CLV -- fair*(1-clv), which is the mid by definition, reconstructed when the mid was not written 3. the stored ask, unchanged DISPLAY ONLY. The ledger is untouched and the forward test never reads it. rrrOrN)r"roundr#r$) fairZclv_pctZ recorded_midZ stored_askrUfcpxrrrr _signal_pxs$ "rcCs&g}|dr|d|dr,|dd}|drJ|dsJd}n|drXd}dd }|d d |d d |dd d|dd |d|d|dd |dpd||d|dt|d|d|d|dt|d|d|d|d||d||dS)NZ auto_order_idrZauto_polyus_order_idPoly-USZ kalshi_stakeZ poly_stakePolyc Ss(z t|WSttfy"YdS0dSr r!r%rrr_fs z_sig_row.._frrbr}?rz vs rrstrategyZbaselineZ clv_kalshiZclv_polyZpin_fairZ entry_k_midZ kalshi_askZ entry_p_midZpoly_ask)rr}r~rrrrrclv_kclv_prrrtradedrz)r*rCr)rGrzvenuerrrrrrs>          rc#szddljddddD}fdd|D}|}|}|fdd|D|d}|\}}||d <||d <tt}|D]$}|} | r||d  | qfd d t | fdddD} zZ |\} } || || ||jjjd } Wntyld} Yn0tt}|D](}|} | rz||d  | qzfdd t | dddD}dd|D}|r||d<tttddh}i}zFt |D]8 fdd|D}t dd| D|<qWntypi}Yn0ttddfdd}d|jji}d d!}d} z |\}}d"d#|D} Wntyd} Yn0gg}}d$}}|D]t} | d%r*d| d&| d&nd'}||7}| | d(|f| durt| | vrh||7}| | d(|fqi}i}D]}|d(|vs|d)sq|d*r|d*dni} |d)||d(|d | d+| d,f<|d)||d(|d | d+f<|d-p"|d.}!|!r|!||d(|d | d+| d,f<|!||d(|d | d+f<q|| | ||||r|d/nd|t j||||j jdd0WSty}"zNiidiiddiigddggddd1iggd2d3t!|"dd4d5WYd}"~"Sd}"~"00dS)6NrF)Zrequire_resultcSsg|]}|ddur|qS)r|NrrTfxrrrrr,z forward_test..csg|]}|djkr|qSr) FREEZE_DATErFrrrr,csg|]}|djkr|qS)rrrTrGrrrrs)xlow (PRIMARY · scoped)Zxlow_f10Zt60uniqueoverlapleaguecsi|]\}}||qSrstatrTrbsrrr r,z forward_test..cs|djvt|d fS)Nrr)PRIMARY_LEAGUESrAZkvrrrr+s  zforward_test..r-) statedisc_ondisc_off disc_droppost_onpost_offfreezemin_nfloorcsi|]\}}||qSrrrrrrr8r,cSst|d SNrrArrrrr+9r,cSsg|]}|D]}|q qSrrrTrrGrrrr:r,zxlow_polyus (USL/PL1/CH1)rdayscsg|]}|dkr|qSrrr)_drrrWr,css|]\}}|dr|VqdS)droppedNrrTrsrrr Xszforward_test..)Zhourscsgg}}D]d}|d}|r|kr4ks8qq|rJ|d|krJq||}|sXq|ddurh|n||q|jfddd|jfdddtdd |D}||||t||d S) Nkorr|cs|dp SNrr)rGcutoffrrr+r,z/forward_test.._last24..r-cs|dp Srr)rrrrr+r,css|]}|drdVqdS)rrNrrrrrrr,z0forward_test.._last24..rbetsrqwl)r*rCrrdrrA)firerrzZopen_rrrGZwins)rallfxr now_localrr_last24qs"    zforward_test.._last24xlowcSs\dg}}|D]H}||}|s q||dr>d|d|dnd7}||d|fq|S)Nr rrrrrrC)ZfixturesrZcumrFrrGrrr_curves $zforward_test.._curvecSsh|] }t|qSr)idrrrrrVr,zforward_test..r rrrrrZprerrZ ftr_displayr|r)rleagueszgatezgate_drop_by_date gap_leaguesgap_allrlast24rko_mapr xlow_curvexlow_curve_zgatebandrrrrri,)rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr)"rZ load_fixturesZclassify_xlow_btrZ classify_t60ZclassifyrrfZfire_xlow_primaryrCrBriZ zgate_walkZ zgate_stateZclassify_xlow_zgateZclassify_xlow_postzZ ZGATE_FREEZEZ ZGATE_MIN_NZ ZGATE_FLOORrZfire_xlow_polyusrertoday isoformatrrnowrrr*rZBANDr@)#ZpreppedZoosZxlow_btprimaryrZuniqrZby_lgrrGrZ_zkept_zdroprgaprrZ live_daysrZ_strrrZ_k_rrZ_cumZ_cumzZ_pnlrrZr0Z_rrEr)rrrrrr forward_tests                " ( $  rc!sBddl}ddddiddddz ddl}|jd<|jd<WntyPYn0ztd}|slWStt}tt }t }t |d d }| |D]}| d pd d dd}|sq||t| ddvr||d7<z$||t | dpd7<Wqty&Yq0qWdn1s@0Yt|d<tdd} |D]B}| |d} | | dd7<| | d| |d7<qfddt| Dd<| ddd<| dd| ddd<t|d<i} t |d d }| |D]p}| d p2d d dd}|sJq| || dd | dd | dprd dd | d!d gggd"} | d#} | d$vrz| d%t | WntyYn0t| ddvrLzt | dpd}Wntyd}Yn0| d&| d'd(| d)d | d*d |d+z,t | d)p^d}|rv| d,|WntyYn0qWdn1s0Ytt}| D]\}} | |d} || || d| d| d| d!| t| d,dkr t| d,dd-ndd.d/d0| d&Dp>d1| d%rTt| d%nd| |dd2 q|D]} || jd3dd4qpt|d5<td6d}t |d d }| |D]}t| ddvrܐq| d!pd(}||d&d7<||d| d pd d ddz(||dt | dpHd7<WntyfYn0qWdn1s0Yd7dt|Dd8<d9d:|D}g}d;D]~fdd0|D}td?d0|D}|t||d@|t|||t|dAq|dB<dCd:|D}dDd:|D}dEd:|D}t|dF<tdGd0|Dt|dH<dIdJ}||||dK<dL<dKrdLrdKdMdLdMkrdKdMdLdM}d@dLdM |dN<t|t|}t||}|dO<d@|dP<|dKdMd|dLdMdQ< ddurfdRd:|D}t|d=krtdSd0|Dt|}t|d@||dKdMd|dLdMdTdU<Wn:ty<} z t| ddVdW<WYd} ~ n d} ~ 00S)XaPaper market-maker health, framed around the thing that decides P&L. The headline is NOT total P&L but COMPLETION RATE. Measured over 242 books: a 3-of-3 book runs +1.38c while a 2-of-3 runs -7.62c, because a complete book earns the overround outcome-independently and a partial one is a naked position. So the dashboard reports how often books complete, split by whether they cleared the liquidity gate that predicts it. rNr F)bookscompletepartialpnl_cby_legsZrunninggaterr  live_regimez'E:\soccer\research\mm_paper_results.csvrrZ leg_tickerrbrWrfilled)true1ZyesZ pnl_centsrcSsddgS)Nrr rrrrrr+r,zmaker_state..cSs$i|]\}}||d|ddqS)rr)rrr)rTrvrrrr r,zmaker_state..rrrrr}r~ts regime)r}r~rrlegsasksvolsZvolumeNrbrrsiderZour_askZfill_px)rZaskZfillrrd,css|]}|dVqdS)rNrrTr&rrrr@r,zmaker_state..—) evr}r~rrrgross_csidesvol_minrcSs|dS)Nrrr%rrrr+Hr,r-detailcSsddtdS)Nrr )rrr)rrrrrr+Mr,cSs.i|]&\}}||dt|d|ddqS)rrr)rrrr)rTgrrrrrYsregimescSs&g|]}|D]}|ddur |q qSr Nrrrrrrdr,zmaker_state..)rrii csg|]}|dkr|qS)r rr)Trrrgr,css|]}|ddkrdVqdSrrrNrrrrrrjr,css|]}|dVqdS)rNrrrrrrkr,rO)trrraterpersweepcSs&g|]}|D]}|ddur |q qSr$rrrrrr~r,cSs g|]}|ddkr|dqS)rrrrrrrrrr,cSs0g|](}d|dkr dkrnq|dqS)rrrrrrrrrrr,scoredcss|]}t|VqdSr r)rTrrrrrr,unscoredcs^|sdSt|t|t|dkrJtfdd|Dt|ddnd}t||dS)Nrc3s|]}|dVqdS)rNrrrUrrrr,z+maker_state.._ms..g?r )rmeansd)rdrA)Zxsr2rr0r_mss (zmaker_state.._mscomppartr1 breakevenrisked live_rateev_ccs,g|]$}|ddkr|ddkr|qS)rrr r rr)rFrrrr,css|]}|ddkrdVqdSr)rrrrrrr,)rr+r9gatedrr)rrZ mm_quoterZMIN_LEG_VOLUMEZREGIMErrexistsrintr"rrqrsr*rhaddr@lowerr$rArBrirdre setdefaultrCrfjoinminrdict)!_csvQrr r{ZeventsrwrxrZbyrmetarUrawrrr!Zregr"Zflatr-rZdonetotZallbZcomp_pZpart_pr3Zspreadr7ZgbZgprEr)r'rFr maker_states    $(          * (   *(*   ".  ( *rHc Cs@ttdi}|sdS|dp"g}d}z.tt|d}t|j|d}Wnt yhYn0|dpvi}t dd| D}t d d| D}|rt |d nd}||pi}|d pg} |d |d |d||| |dt dd|Dt ||||t |dp&gt |dp8gdS)a%What the liquidity gate is doing RIGHT NOW, from mm_quoter's snapshot. The gate rejects with a bare `continue`, so without this the only visible evidence was the books that got through. This shows the ones turned away and by how much, which is the cost side of the threshold. z%E:\soccer\research\mm_gate_state.jsonNrrN@dailycss |]}t|dpgVqdS)admittedNrAr*rTrrrrrr,zgate_state..css |]}t|dpgVqdS)rejectedNrLrMrrrrr,rXaheadr rwindow_h sweep_secscss|]}|drdVqdS)passrNr)rrrrrr,rKrN)r rrPrage_mrOrQnow_passradmrejr today_adm today_rej)rrr*r fromisoformatr@rZtzinfo total_secondsrrdrerBrA) r"rrSrrJrUrVrr*rOrrr gate_states2    r[))&E:/soccer/research/mm_book_dataset.csvzbook dataset (analysis-ready)atone row per BOOK we quoted, with the market as it looked AT OPEN -- opening gross, hours to kickoff, book and thinnest-leg volume, worst-leg queue, favourite and longshot price -- and legs_filled / complete as the outcome. Completion is the number the strategy lives or dies on, and a model fitted on legs answers a different question. Built by research/mm_book_dataset.py)z#E:\soccer\research\mm_live_legs.csvz legs offeredzone row per leg put on the exchange: league, bid/ask/mid and Pinnacle fair AT PLACEMENT, leg and book volume, queue depth, cents over the touch and the book budget at that moment)(E:\soccer\research\mm_live_realfills.csvfillszOevery real maker fill, with the queue that was ahead of us and how long it tookg@zmm_fill_dataset.csvzmm_book_dataset.csvcs0ddlfdd}|dd|ddd d dS) aDRebuild BOTH analysis CSVs so the downloads are never stale. The book dataset was added 2026-08-26 and NOTHING rebuilt it, so it shipped frozen at the row count it happened to have when first generated, while the leg dataset beside it refreshed every 30 minutes. A download that silently stops moving is worse than no download -- it looks current. ORDER MATTERS. The book dataset is derived from the leg dataset, so the leg one is rebuilt first and the book builder is told not to redo it (rebuild=False); otherwise ~350k log rows get parsed twice per page build for the same answer. Wrapped per step: these are convenience artifacts and a failure here must never take the dashboard down. If one cannot rebuild, the previous file is still embedded and simply shows an older row count. rNc sz:j||}j|}|j||jfi|WnDty~}z,td|dt|j d|WYd}~n d}~00dS)Nz [dash] z rebuild skipped: : ) utilspec_from_file_locationmodule_from_specloader exec_modulemainrr type__name__)rarukwspecmodrE importlibrr_runs  z#_refresh_fill_dataset.._runZmm_fill_datasetz%E:/soccer/research/mm_fill_dataset.pyZmm_book_dataset%E:/soccer/research/mm_book_dataset.pyF)Zrebuild)importlib.util)rmrrkr_refresh_fill_datasets  rpcsddl}tdg}g}tD]D\}}}t|}z |}WntyRYqYn0td|dd}ddl} |j d} } t |dkr|j t vr| |d}|j dd } } t |d } | t kr|d t|d t|d | ddq||d} |dt| dt|d| d| d t|d|ddt |ddd| drVdnddq|sndS|d||dz4ddlfd d!}|d"d#}d$|j|jd%fg}WnRty}z8|d&tt|dd'dd|WYd}~Sd}~00|D]\} }}fd(d)|D}|d*t| d+t d,|d-|d|d.|d/D]*\}}|d0t|d1t|d2q||d3|r|d4td5|d|d6qd|S)7Nrz%
download raw data:  rztext/csvi@ z.gzzapplication/gzipg.Az (.1fu!MB — too large to embed)asciiz (rz rows, r&.0fZKBz gzrb)u  ·  
cs*j||}j|}|j||Sr )r`rarbrcrd)raruZsprUrkrr_loadKs  zcsv_downloads.._load_mmbdrnz book datasetaOne row = ONE BOOK we quoted, with every feature taken AT OPEN — what could have been known when the decision to open it was made. Anything measured later is downstream of the outcome, because a book that fills a leg gets re-priced by the budget rule. Outcome is complete. Filter on legs_quoted==3: a book where only two legs were ever offered cannot complete, and leaving those in understates the rate.z3
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z. — column glossary (z fields)

z(z
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)base64rp CSV_DOWNLOADSr read_bytesrtmaxcountgziprarA NEVER_GZIPcompress CSV_MAX_MBrCescZ b64encodedecodeendswithr@roZ FIELD_DOCSZOUT_COLSrr@)rrFbitsrulabelZwhyrrFrrraZmimeZmbZb64rzr{ZdatasetsrEZcols_ZintroZundoccolr)r}rlr csv_downloadss                     rz 2026-09-01r\cs(ddlddlfdd}ddgddddiddgdddd}ttj}ztd}|rt}||D]Z}t | dd krqpd}zt |d }Wnt yYn0| d }|d kr4| | d |rtd||d}|ddus||dkr||d<|dkr|dd7<qp|dvrp|rp||dkrp| dp^d} d| vrpd} n@d| vsdt | dvrd} n| ddddp|} |d | dd|d| <qpt||d<td } | rt|| } | d!d|d"<td#d$| D|d%<zttdd&d'd($} d)d*| D}Wdn1s\0Yd+d*|D}d,d*|D}t||d-<t||d.<|rd/t|t|nd|d0<Wnt yYn0Wn>t y}z$t|jd1||d2<WYd}~n d}~00zddl}t|p.i d3gpaState of the ARMED maker: is it quoting, is it filling, what does it hold? THE FAILURE MODE IS SILENT. Every cap in kalshi_maker fails CLOSED -- if the exchange cannot be read, collateral reads as infinite and every order is refused. That is the safe direction, but it stops quoting without raising anything, and "no fills" then looks exactly like a quiet market. So the headline here is the AGE OF THE LAST SUCCESSFUL POST, not whether a process exists. Exchange state is read live rather than from our own logs: the point of a monitor is to catch the case where what we believe and what is actually resting have diverged. rNcs<t|d}d|vr"|dd}|jdddS)aPParse a maker CSV that may contain NUL bytes from an interrupted write. WHY: an interrupted write leaves a block of NULs mid-file, and csv.reader raises "line contains NUL" the moment it reaches them. That aborted this whole function partway through, so last_post_min kept only the value from rows BEFORE the corruption and legs_posted was never assigned at all -- the panel reported "last post 25863m ago, 0 legs posted" while the maker was quoting normally with 14 orders resting on the exchange beside it. The corruption is from the 2026-08-17 machine crash: 303 NULs in mm_live_orders.csv and 456 in mm_live_legs.csv, both immediately after a row stamped 2026-08-17T15:24. The panel had been frozen on that date for eighteen days. It fails toward "looks broken" rather than "looks fine", which is why it went unnoticed rather than unreported. research/mm_fill_dataset._read already does exactly this, which is why the research pipeline was never affected. 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Position already says home or away (before or after "vs"), so this only has to mark WHICH team -- one accent, no colour code to learn, and it cannot be confused with the good/bad used for outcomes. */ .pick{color:var(--acc);font-weight:600} /* Provenance dot: this result came from a settled market, not the match record. Deliberately faint -- it is a footnote about where a number came from, not a warning about the number. */ .prov{opacity:.45;margin-left:3px;cursor:help} /* Age of the build, filled in by the browser. Quiet when fresh; red once the page has missed two publish cycles, which is the only case worth a colour. */ .age{opacity:.7} .age.stale{color:#e5534b;opacity:1;font-weight:600} /* CLV rides with its ask: they are one thought -- what it costs and how far below fair that is -- and two columns for it cost width a phone has not got. 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Horizontal scroll still exists as a fallback for the tables that stay wide. .opt secondary -> hidden below 900px .opt2 tertiary -> hidden below 640px */ @media(max-width:900px){ .opt{display:none} table{min-width:0} } @media(max-width:640px){ body{padding:12px} .kpi{min-width:calc(50% - 5px)} .topbar{flex-direction:column;align-items:stretch} .tools{width:100%} input.filter{flex:1} .opt2{display:none} h1{font-size:18px} /* long match names wrap instead of stretching the row off-screen */ td{white-space:normal} /* Reclaim the last ~40px from CHROME rather than from content. At 11px of horizontal padding a five-column table spends ~110px on gutters; 6px still reads as separated and buys back a whole column's worth of width. */ th,td{padding:8px 6px;font-size:13px} th{font-size:11px} /* The match is the widest column and, left alone, the table's auto layout gives it whatever the longest fixture name asks for. 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Numeric where the whole column parses as a number (after stripping // %,$,+,commas) so "-14.7%" and "$1,797.89" sort as magnitudes, not strings. function val(td){ // An explicit data-sort wins. Needed where the DISPLAY is not the sort key: // "A · +$34.05" would otherwise parse to nothing and fall back to sorting // alphabetically by result letter, which is not what anyone means by // "sort the result column". if(td.dataset && td.dataset.sort!==undefined && td.dataset.sort!==''){ var d=parseFloat(td.dataset.sort); return isNaN(d)?null:d; } var t=(td.textContent||'').trim(); var n=parseFloat(t.replace(/[$,%+\s]/g,'').replace(/^\((.*)\)$/,'-$1')); return isNaN(n)?null:n; } document.querySelectorAll('table').forEach(function(tb){ var head=tb.tHead||tb.rows[0]&&tb.rows[0].parentNode; var hr=tb.querySelector('tr'); if(!hr) return; var body=tb.tBodies[0]||tb; Array.prototype.forEach.call(hr.cells,function(th,i){ if(th.tagName!=='TH') return; th.classList.add('sortable'); th.onclick=function(){ var all=Array.prototype.slice.call(body.rows); // Rows marked .nosort belong to a different rule (or are separators). // They keep their original order and stay BELOW the sorted block -- // sorting them in with the primary implies a pooling that is wrong. var pinned=all.filter(function(r){ return r.classList.contains('nosort'); }); var rows=all.filter(function(r){ return r!==hr && !r.classList.contains('nosort') && r.cells.length===hr.cells.length; }); if(!rows.length) return; var dir = th.classList.contains('asc')?-1:1; Array.prototype.forEach.call(hr.cells,function(o){o.classList.remove('asc','desc');}); th.classList.add(dir===1?'asc':'desc'); rows.sort(function(a,b){ var x=val(a.cells[i]), y=val(b.cells[i]); if(x!==null&&y!==null) return (x-y)*dir; return (a.cells[i].textContent.trim()).localeCompare(b.cells[i].textContent.trim())*dir; }); rows.forEach(function(r){ body.appendChild(r); }); pinned.forEach(function(r){ body.appendChild(r); }); }; }); }); // Filter: hides non-matching rows across every table at once, so typing a // league code or team narrows the whole page rather than one section. var f=document.getElementById('filterBox'); if(f){ f.oninput=function(){ var q=f.value.toLowerCase().trim(); document.querySelectorAll('table').forEach(function(tb){ var hr=tb.querySelector('tr'); Array.prototype.forEach.call(tb.rows,function(r){ if(r===hr) return; if(r.cells.length===1){ return; } // keep spanning note rows r.classList.toggle('hidden', !!q && r.textContent.toLowerCase().indexOf(q)<0); }); }); if(q) document.querySelectorAll('details.sec').forEach(function(d){d.open=true;}); }; } // Equity hover: crosshair + tooltip. A line chart that cannot be read at a // point is half a chart -- the end label alone tells you where it finished, // not when it drew down. Nearest-index by pixel x, so the whole plot area is // a hit target rather than each 2px vertex. document.querySelectorAll('svg.eq').forEach(function(svg){ var xs=(svg.getAttribute('data-x')||'').split(',').map(Number), vs=(svg.getAttribute('data-v')||'').split(',').map(Number), ds=(svg.getAttribute('data-d')||'').split(','), g=svg.querySelector('.eq-hov'), hit=svg.querySelector('.eq-hit'); if(!xs.length||!g||!hit) return; var cross=g.querySelector('.eq-cross'), dot=g.querySelector('.eq-dot'), tip=g.querySelector('.eq-tip'), bg=g.querySelector('.eq-tipbg'), line=svg.querySelector('.eq-line'), pathEl=line&&line.getAttribute('d'); // second series, when the chart has one. Same index space as the first -- // equity_svg guarantees they are sampled on the same bet sequence -- so // one nearest-index lookup serves both. var v2raw=svg.getAttribute('data-v2')||'', v2=v2raw?v2raw.split(',').map(Number):null, dot2=g.querySelector('.eq-dot2'), line2=svg.querySelector('.eq-line2'), pathEl2=line2&&line2.getAttribute('d'); function segAt(d,i){ // y comes from the path string rather than being re-emitted: one source var m=d.split(' L'); var seg=(i===0?m[0].slice(1):m[i]); return seg.split(',').map(Number); } function ptAt(i){ return segAt(pathEl,i); } function move(ev){ var r=svg.getBoundingClientRect(); var sx=(ev.clientX-r.left)*(640/r.width); var best=0, bd=1e9; for(var i=0;i=0?'+':'')+vs[best].toFixed(2); if(v2&&pathEl2&&dot2){ var p2=segAt(pathEl2,best); dot2.setAttribute('cx',p2[0]); dot2.setAttribute('cy',p2[1]); dot2.style.display=''; txt+=' / '+(v2[best]>=0?'+':'')+v2[best].toFixed(2); } tip.textContent=txt; var w=txt.length*6.2+10, tx=Math.min(Math.max(p[0]-w/2,2),640-w-2); bg.setAttribute('x',tx); bg.setAttribute('y',2); bg.setAttribute('width',w); tip.setAttribute('x',tx+w/2); tip.setAttribute('y',14); tip.setAttribute('text-anchor','middle'); } hit.addEventListener('mousemove',move); hit.addEventListener('touchmove',function(e){ if(e.touches&&e.touches[0]){ move(e.touches[0]); e.preventDefault(); } },{passive:false}); hit.addEventListener('mouseleave',function(){ g.style.display='none'; }); hit.addEventListener('touchend',function(){ g.style.display='none'; }); }); // Default sort, applied only to tables that ASK for it via data-defaultsort. // Not blanket: "Recent books" is deliberately newest-first and the regime // table is in v1..v4 order, so sorting every table by column 0 would undo // orderings that were chosen on purpose. document.querySelectorAll('table[data-defaultsort]').forEach(function(tb){ var i=parseInt(tb.getAttribute('data-defaultsort'),10)||0; var hr=tb.querySelector('tr'); if(hr && hr.cells[i] && hr.cells[i].onclick) hr.cells[i].onclick(); }); var eb=document.getElementById('expandBtn'); if(eb){ eb.onclick=function(){ var any=Array.prototype.some.call(document.querySelectorAll('details.sec'), function(d){return !d.open;}); document.querySelectorAll('details.sec').forEach(function(d){d.open=any;}); eb.textContent = any?'Collapse all':'Expand all'; }; } })(); cCs t|ddddddS)N&z&z>)r@r)rrrrrsrrcCsD|dur dS|dkrdn|dkr$dnd}d|d|d|d d S) N—rgoodbaddim $,.rrrrrrmoneysrcCs |dkr dnddt|dS)z}Axis money label. The sign goes OUTSIDE the currency symbol: "$-106" is the kind of thing that gets read as $106 at 10px.rrWrb$,.0f)rrrrr _ax_moneysrc[s|t|dkrdS|dddfgt|}dd|Dd}|rht|t|dkrhdgd d|D}t|prgdgt|pgdgd krd d \}}d \}} |||| fddfddfddtD} dddd| D} d} ddkrDdnddkrVdnd} | dkrpd| dnd}| d\}}ddd| D}dd dD}dd!d|D}d}}d}d"}|durԇfd#dt|D}ddd$d|D}|d\}}dd%d|D}t||d&kr|d?d@|d?dAt|dBtdCddDdE|dF|dG|dH|dI|dJdK| d-dL||d-dM| d-dN|dO| d+|d,|d-d.|d-dP|dQdRd?d2dSd-dTtdUdRd?d2dSd-dTtdUd?d2|dRd?d4t|dddU||d-d2|dRd?dTt|dddV|d1d-d2|dSd-d4dd5dWdMd-dX|dY|dZd2d[d-d\d-d][S)^aUInline SVG equity curve for one paper rule, optionally with a variant. ONE series by default, and then there is no legend -- the heading names it, and a legend box for a single line is noise. Sign is encoded by POSITION against a dashed zero line, not by hue: --good and --bad separate by only ~4.9 deutan dE, so a reader who cannot tell them apart still sees the curve sitting below zero. Colour reinforces; geometry and the end label carry it. `overlay` adds a SECOND series and, with it, the legend the single-series case does not need. It must be sampled on the SAME bet sequence as `points` -- same length, same dates, one entry per bet of the primary rule -- because the two are meant to be read as "what the same run would have looked like". A variant that skips a bet carries its previous level forward, so the dashed line going flat IS the variant sitting that bet out. Building it on its own shorter sequence instead would silently compress its x-axis and make two different timelines look like one. The variant is separated by DASH rather than hue, for the same reason the sign is: solid vs dashed survives any colour vision. `points` is [(game_date, cumulative_units)] in bet order; units are scaled by PAPER_NOTIONAL here so the curve cannot drift from the table or the tile. rrbrr cSsg|]\}}|tqSrPAPER_NOTIONALrTrrrrrr?r,zequity_svg..NrcSsg|]\}}|tqSrrrrrrrBr,g& .>r)g@g^@)gG@gO@r g4@cs|tdSrr)i)LpwvalsrrrJszequity_svg..pxcs|Sr rr)r'hilophrrpyMszequity_svg..pycs g|]\}}||fqSrrrTrrrrrrrPr,Mz Lcss$|]\}}|dd|dVqdSrurNrrTr&yrrrrQr,zequity_svg..rXrrrzvar(--)z var(--dim)rcss|]\}}|dVqdS)ruNr)rTr&rrrrrWr,css|]}|dVqdS.2fNrrMrrrrXr,css|]\}}tt|VqdSr )rr@)rTr"rrrrrYr,z var(--acc)cs g|]\}}||fqSrrrrrrr_r,css$|]\}}|dd|dVqdSrrrrrrr`r,css|]}|dVqdSrrrMrrrrbr, g@g*@gzz-
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) rArfrAr enumerater@rrr)ZpointsZcidrcoverlaykeysZvals2WrRBZptslinebaserrexZeyZdxZdvZddZsvg2r.Zdv2Zcol2Zpts2Zline2Zex2Zey2Z_dyZk1Zk2r) rr'rrrrrrrr equity_svg!s$ .  (   (        rc!s(t}|tdd}t}t}t}tt||h| dd|\}}t }|dd}|dd} t dd |Dt dd | D} t d d | D} t d d | D} d d ddddt ddg} | d| d| dtjdddtdd|dd| d| d| d | d!| d"| d#|d$ d%}| d&|d}| d'dur| d(np| d)pi}d*d+d t|D}| d,t|d'd-t| d.d/d0t| d1d/d2|d# |d}| d'dur(| d3n>| d4t|d'd-t| d.d/d0t| d1d/d#| d5t| d6t|t| d7|r| d8t|d9d:|d;d<|d=d>d#|d?|d@}| dAt|d6|d?dBdC|d@dBdDdE|| dffD]\}}}|r| d;s4q|d9dF|d;t}t|}|tkrbdGn|tkrpdHndI}| dJ|dKt|dL|dM|dNdOtdNdP|d;d*|d9dQdR|d?dSdC|d@dSdTtt|pdUd#q| dVt}|dWdup|dWdXk}|r dYndZ}| d[|d\|d]durF|d]ndUd^| d_| d`|dWdurxdan|dWdSdb}| dcdurddn"|dcdSde|dfdg|dhdi}| dj|rdHndGd|dk|d]dur|d]ndUdl|dmdk|dndk|dodp|dq|drdSdstt|d'p8dUdt| du| t|dvrd*dwd t|dvdxdydzD}| d{t|d||dr| d}d*d~d |dDdV| dtd| d| d|r d|dnd} | dpit fdd |D}!|!rHd|!dnd}"| dt|d| |"d| dpzd}#| t| dpgdd| ddUdt| dpgdtdd|#dd| d| d|s| dd}$d/}%d/}&g}'|D]}ddd |dDp(d}(|d})|)dkrD|dn|d}*|*durt|ddurl|dn|d}*ddd |)d}+d},d}-|drv|dd}.|.dur|*rd/|*krdkrnn |.d/krd|*|*ndt}/n|.}/|/dur,|/d},|$|/7}$|%d7}%|/}-|/d/kr,|&d7}&|d dr@dnd}0|/durZt|/|0nt|ddpldU|0}1nd}1|ddkrdndt|ddi}2|-dur|*dur|' |*|*durdn"d|*dd|+rd|+dnd}3t|)dk r|dn|d}4|ddu r dn |dd}5| d p:i}6|6 |d|d| d| df p|6 |d|d| df}7|7 rd|7ddind}8t| d pi |d pd}9d}:|d|9v rd}:t| d pdUt| d pdU};}n*|=!dǡ rR|;d|<di}>n t|d}>| d|: rndnddt"|d|7dt|ddXd|8dt|dd|>|2|:d|*du r|*ndd|3d|4d|5dt|)dk r|dn|dd|(d|,d|1dtq|% r|$d/k r0dGn|$d/k r>dHndI}?dF|&|%}@|' rhdFt |'t|'nd}A|Adu rd|@dBd|&d֝}BnR|@|A}C|Cd/k rdGn|Cd/k rdHndI}Dd|@dBd|&d|AdBd|Dd|CdQdٝ }B| d|%dt||Bd|?dt|$dޝ | du| dttd| dtdd| d pNi#D}E|E r|| dtd|Ed| d| dt|t| d| ddd}Ft$}Gg}Hd|fd| ffD]\}}It%t&}J|ID]0}K|J|K d p|Kd|F|Kd/kf |K q|dk r$dnd}L|JD]"\\}M}N}O|H ||L|M|O|Nf q0 qdD]~\}P}Qtfdd |HDddydz}R|R s q\t|R}S| dt|Pd|Sd|Q|Sdk rdndd|RD]\}}T}M}O}Ut dd |OD}Vt dd |OD}Wdd|OD}X|Xr$tt |Xnd}Yt'|M\}Z}[|[rL|Zd|[(n|M}\t|O}]|Urd}^|]d|]dkrvdnd}_n:|]dkrdn d|]d}^|]d|]dkrdnd}_|Urdn |G |Md}`|`rdt|`dind}a| d|Td|di|adpt|\d|^d|_dpt|Vd|Yd|Wddt|OD]}K|Kddurht|Kdnd}b|K d p|Kd}c| d t|cdt|Kd dkt|Kd dk|bd|Kd ddt qF qА q\|s| s| d| du|r | d| dd}d|D]}e|e d;durd| dt|e dpTddtq&|d|ed.7}d|ed;d/krdnd|ed;}f| dt|fd|ed;dt|ed.dk|eddk|edd|ed]dt q&| dt|dd| du| d| rd| dt| dt| dt| | ddd d!D]@}g||gdrj| d"|gd#t||gddVqj| d| d$| d%|dr| d&t|ddt|d$D]\}f}|s0| d't|fd(q| d't|fdk|d;dk|d?dBd)|d@dBd*t|d9d|d=d>dt q| du| d+t| d,pgd-| d.| d/|d0r| d| d1| d2t| d,pg}hz*d/d3l)m*}im+}j|ht|it|jO}hWnt,yZYn0|d0D]\}Z}|s|qj|Z|hv}k|krdZnd4}^| d't|Zdk|^dk|d;dk|d?dBd)|d@dBd*t|d9d|d=d>dtqj| d5rb|d5}l| d6|ld;d|ld?dBd)|ld@dBd)t|ld9d|ld=d>dt | du| d7| d5r| d8| d| d9}m|mr8td:d|md;Dddydz}od$d?d@}p| dAt|ndB| d_| dC|nD]J\}Z}| d't|ZdD|d;dkt|d9dE|d=d>dt qB|oD]L\}Z}| d't|ZdF|d;dt|d9d|d=d>dt q|ns|os| dG| du| dH|mdIdJ|mdKdQdL| d_| dM| |pdN|mdO| |pdP|mdQ| du| d_| dR| |pdS|mdTdIdU| |pdV|mdWdIdU| |pdX|mdYdIdU| du| dZt|mdd[| d\| d]| d| d^pHi}qd|q dpZi| dfg}rt d_d |rD}st d`d |rD}t| da|sdb|trd*|tdcnddd| dr| det|ddV| d&|rD]8\}f}u}|u df}|u dgd/|u dhd/}v}wt|u dipFg}x|xr^d*|xdcnd}y|s| dJ|fdj|yd#q|d9dF|d;t}|d/krdGn|d/krdHnd}z| dJ|fdk|zd|vdl|wd6t|d*t|d9dm|d?dSdC|d@dSdn|ydott|p(dUd#q| dVdpd|rD}{|{dqd|rD7}{|{j-drdydsdt|{r| d_| du|{D]D\}f}|}}|| dv}~|~r|~dwnd}|| dpdUdx|| dpdU}>|| dy}|r|ddSdznd}|| d{}|durJ|ddBd|nd}|}rZd}1n||d}rnd~}1nd}1| dt|dkt|fdt|| dpddkt|>dkt|| dpddp|dq|dk|1dtq| dun | d| d| d| ddd/i}|d(rdF|d|d}| d|dd| d| d}}|dur@|dur@||k}| d&| d|rdGndHd|dSd|dd;d|dd | d|dSd||dd| dS}l|lr|ld|k}| d|ddd|r`dGndHd|lddSd|ld|dd|ld;d# | d|dd/krdGndHd|dd>d|lrd|ldd>dnddV| dV|r&t.dt/||dnd/}| d|d| d_| ddD]\}}| |}|sxq\|dd/krdGn|dd/krdHndI}z| d|dk|d;dd|d;|ddSd|zd|dd>d|ddBd q\| dd/| dd/}|d/krH| d|d| du| dr|| d|dd| dtdd | di#Dddydsdt}|dt0}| rt|t|}|rt|dt|nt|}| d|dd| d_| d|D]}|||dd/krNdGn||dd/krbdHndI}||ddurzdn||ddQdz}||ddurd}nV|dduo||d|dk}|rd||dddind||dddi}||d; r||d;dnd}||d;dk r*dGn||d; r8dHndI}| dt||ddXddkt||ddkt||dd|d|dlt||ddk|d|dlt||dd|d||ddQdq4| d| d¡t1}|$r|d$}I| dá!pg}|ddu!o.|ddXk}|!rJdt|dƝnd}| d|ddt|Id|dd| d_| dʡ|I!s| d|dd͝t&|It|ddydzD]x}et2|e dϡ}|d|ed}|"rdn$d|dk"r|dBn|ddi}ddd |e dա"pHgD}|e d֡dk"r|e dס}d|"rd|dSdڝnddi}n4dېddddݜ |e d֡tt|e dd}| d|eddBdt|e dddkt|e ddd|#rdGndIdt/|eddd|dk|d|dt!q| du|d|d}|#rdF|d|dSd|nd}|#rd|ddSdn,|ddu#r֐d|ddSdڝnd}| d|dddtt|dd|d|dd|dd|dd|d|d$r~d|dd|d|dnddV| d|$r| d}| d|dd|$rސd|ddSdndd| d| d%pg}|&r| d|dd| d_| dt3dd |D}|D]"}|dd/k%rtdGn|dd/k%rdHndI}z|ddu%o|d|dk}|%rdnd}^|d|k%r֐dnd}|dd/k%rdnd|dd}| d||^dk|dd|ddk|ddSd|zd|ddd|zd|dd>dz|dt%qZ| du| d | dd d d d d}| d&pi}| d}ktt|t|B|k&r|khntB}|(r| dt|k'pdUdd| d_| d|D]*}l| |l'pZd/d/dd}|d'r||d|dnd/}|d/k'rdGn|d/k'rdHndI}z|l|kk'rdnd}^|d'rd|zd|ddQd}d|zd|d>d}n d}d}| dt|ld|^dk|d(p*dd|d(p>dd||d| |lddt'q<| du| d| d| d| d| d| d t4d!| d"d#| S(%NrrrrrMrKrNcss|]}|dVqdSr]Nrrrrrrr,zbuild..css"|]}|ddur|dVqdSr^Nrrrrrrr,css"|]}|ddur|dVqdS)r^Nr]rrrrrrr,z%zzDz/z"Soccer xlow trackerzz z
z

Soccer xlow tracker

z7
snapshot · frozen rule since ru# · caps $1/order both venues
az
urz9z1z
rrz
r/zm
Kalshi total
err
rPu · css2|]*\}}|dkrdn d|dt|VqdS)rzprimary subrN)r)rTrrrrrrszE
Kalshi total
z
cash r0ru · pending rQz
zn
Poly-US total
err
zF
Poly-US total
z@
At risk
z
z open
zD
Fwd ROI/bet
roiz
n=ru · z=z+.2fwriwrzF
WR vs implied
ru% vs z %
z xlow paperrOrrrz"
z; (not real)
z0
bankroll from $z
n=+.1fu% · WR rwz+% implied
frozen rryrzSTALEzlivez.
Live maker z (r3z resting)rzLast postRestingPlaced 1hLegs postedFilledStrand rateExposureBalanceneverzm agorz —z%r/rrzrrrz zrz ct$rrrcss |]\}}|d|VqdS)z ×Nr)rTkrrrrr4r,cSs |d Srrrrrrr+5r,zbuild..r-z,
rejects in the last hour: u — post only cross is the guard working: the book moved between reading the ask and sending, so the exchange refused an order that would have crossed.
z
open: css6|].}t|ddddd|ddVqdS)rSrWrrXrr\+.0fN)rrh)rTrrrrr;sa
Strand rate, not fill rate: books that took at least one leg and did NOT complete, over books that took at least one leg. A book nobody touched is excluded — it cost nothing, and counting it only dilutes the number. A strand costs about −$0.69 against +$0.09 for a clean book, so break-even sits near 12% and the lifetime figure is 14%. Scoped to books opened on or after z, when the current maker (MIN_OPEN_H=6, 5 books) took effect — earlier books measure a maker that no longer exists. The n beside the rate is the whole caveat at this sample size.
z
89% optimistic ceiling. Kill switch: create the STOP_MAKER file in the project root.
ru ·  out-of-scope hiddenrbrc3s0|](}|dt|dpdvrdVqdS)r}rrrN)rr*rTr)_zmaprrrVsz z-gateuE
Signals — today & tomorrow (rz rrruxlow paper equity — frozen rtz bets, $rz/bet))uprimary — live ruleu)z-gate shadow — in-sample, not evidence)rr z.
zz5r rcss,|]$}d|dkrdndd|dVqdS)zn/arrrrKP)rrrzr{rz.4frzl·r|zopenrz rzrzz (rxrrrrz.3frrr}rrz z%H:%Mrz z-gaterrzz vs rz vs r~zzA
Result is scored at the paper notional (z/bet), not at whatever the ledger happened to stake — so it matches the equity curve above and the paper KPI tile exactly. A win pays (1−ask)/ask units, a loss costs one.
uT
Ask = the quoted price on each venue at signal time; the named (cheaper) venue is bold — that is what the bet costs. Fair = devigged Pinnacle probability. Two signals at the same CLV are very different bets at 0.14 and 0.47, and price is what drives the variance that makes this rule slow to measure.
cSsh|]}|D]}|q qSrr)rTrrrrrrV szbuild..a
z-gate marks a signal in a league the shadow exclusion rule currently sits out — below the floor on a point-in-time read of its own history, judged on results known BEFORE that row's date. Currently: rak.
These rows are not removed and not altered. The signal fired, the bet is scored, and it still counts in the frozen forward test exactly as before — the mark only says what a rule that is not switched on would have done. Hiding them would put this table in disagreement with the number the test is accruing. See the League z-gate panel.
z3
Open positions (z$)
DateLgMatchAsk / CLVFairCLV otherReal tradeResult
no signals
z(zz zzu_
Total — z settled of zY
zZc Ss.zt|dWSttfy(YdS0dS)Nr\r )r"r*r#r$r%rrr_qf9 szbuild.._qfrrZrYr!r))z market makerZbookF)rrTc3s|]}|dkr|VqdS)rNrr&) _want_xlowrrre r,cSs|ddk|dfS)Nrrrrr*rrrr+f r,z,css|]}|dVqdSrrrTrrrrro r,css|]}|dVqdS)r_Nrr-rrrrp r,cSs g|]}|ddur|dqSrrr-rrrrq r,zbuild..zxlowz betrz"completezz of 3z legz+
zz1
VenueMarketQtyCostValueFees
rz)
z z$r^r[uJ
↳ r\r]r_z3
none open
zTz8z
The Kalshi app shows the primary subaccount only, so anything held outside it is invisible there — this table is the only place it shows up.
z'
Poly-US marked value z vs cost ruG) — note thin books mark to a low bid, which overstates losses.
rLz
z API error: zb
Forward test (out-of-sample)
SubaccountCashLongShortResting
subaccounts unreadable: rrz subaccount z
z #zr1r2z9
total cashzEacross all subaccounts
zUz z%
RulenWRImpliedROI/betz
z
u.—
%z3
Scope. The primary row is ra{ leagues: the 20 the backtest was measured on — a universe fixed before this test started — minus BSA and CL1, plus NWSL. Leagues outside it are still scored, separately: the pooled and out-of-scope summary rows are no longer shown here, but both series are still written daily to forward_test_unique_book_log.csv, and every out-of-scope league still appears in the by-league table below.
PL1 and USL removed 2026-08-27. Neither has any Polymarket.com market, so the rule could never fire on them directly — they entered only through a Poly-US substitution the n=286 backtest never used, and that slice ran flat (+0.8% on n=71) while the Poly.com-confirmed legs ran +34.5%. They keep scoring in the by-league table, the daily CSV and the poly-US row, so nothing stops being measured; it just stops counting toward the frozen rule.
aV
Read the primary with care. BSA and CL1 were removed on 2026-08-23 after they showed as the two worst leagues in the scope (−40.2% on n=35 and −75.2% on n=13). That is post-hoc selection, unlike the original backtest scope, which was fixed in advance. It moves the headline from +18.75% (z+1.37) to +34.46% (z+2.55) and nearly all of that is the two removals — so the z crossing 1.96 is manufactured by the choice, not earned by the rule. Everything before 2026-08-23 is in-sample for this scope; only bets struck after it test it.
z
unique/overlap are diagnostics, not traded: the rule bets "unique" shapes and skips "overlap" ones, so a wide spread between them means the gate is doing real work.
rzW
Forward by league
zarztrackrzir rrrur/rr.rrr)r)rrrZnoterrr_zrowM s zbuild.._zrowuK
League z-gate (shadow · z dropped)zF
z2z9
A league is dropped once it has rz%+ settled bets and its z falls below ra. State is point-in-time: a dropped league that recovers above the floor comes back on its own, and the bets it lost while out are not replayed.
Primary scope only. The gate runs inside the frozen scope, so the track-only leagues listed in the table above (BSA, CO1, JP1, CN1 …) are absent here by design — several are far worse than anything on this list and are already outside the headline.
zMzgated (shadow)rzungated (control)rzr:r)rZungatedrzthe dropped betsra_
Discovery, not validation. This gate was found by reading the by-league table above — the same sample the "before freeze" rows score — so those rows are guaranteed to flatter it and are not evidence of anything. That is the identical error to the BSA/CL1 scope edit, one level deeper. Only the since z. rows test it, and they start empty.
a
Why exclude and not select. The question asked was the opposite one — bet only leagues with z above a threshold. Walk-forward that fails: inside the primary scope it returned +8.9% on the bets it took against +17.3% on the bets it skipped, and a random draw of the same size beat it two thirds of the time. Selecting winners needs the top tail to persist and costs ~80% of the sample; excluding losers needs only the bottom tail and costs ~5%. League-level persistence is real but weak (first-half z vs second-half ROI r=+0.35, p=0.03 over 29 leagues) — enough to find the worst, not to rank the best.
a
Shadow only. Nothing here gates an order or changes the frozen primary, which stays unfiltered above. Both series are written daily to forward_test_unique_book_log.csv as xlow_zgate_* and its control xlow_postz_*.
rcss&|]\}}}t|dpgVqdS)rNrLrTrrrrrr r,css&|]\}}}t|dpgVqdS)rqNrLr2rrrr r,uJ
xlow — last 24h (z settledz openz)z/
forward test unreadable: rrrrquj (24h, paper)
—
no settled betsz< (24h, paper)
WR z % impliedz"
frozen cSs0g|](\}}}|dpgD]}||dfqqS)rFr)rTrarrrGrrrr scSs0g|](\}}}|dpgD]}||dfqqS)rqTr)r3rrrr scSs|ddptjS)Nrr)r*rrAr,rrrr+ r,Trz
r %m-%d %H:%Mz v rrclv%rzWzLz))r4ucomplete — all 3 legs sold)r5upartial — stranded on 1 or 2r1zr.uQr/r~uB older books are excluded from this panel: they predate the volume column, so the gate cannot be evaluated against them. Same rule as the sweep below. They are all v1/v2, whose quoting rule sat above the market’s own ask on 86% of legs — pooling them in moves break-even from 61% to 79% on retired behaviour.ux
Read the Spread column, not the P&L. A complete book collects the overround whoever wins, so it lands in a narrow band; a partial book is a naked position on one outcome and swings ~25× wider for a mean that is not distinguishable from zero. That is why completion rate is the headline and total P&L is not: the profit is a near-certainty and all the variance is partial fills. Modelled per-book above is completion×complete + (1−completion)×partial — both measured far more precisely than realised P&L, which would need ~841 books at the current gate to resolve.
css|]}|D] }|Vq qdSr rrrrrr_ r,r!cSs|d|d fS)Nrrrrrrrr+` r,z@
Recent books (z
rrr zzz/3zz0cSs |ddS)Nhrsrr)r%rrrr+ r,rRZminvolzpassz−rcss|]}t|dVqdS)rN)r<rMrrrr r,rstageZ vol_age_mz!ahead of windowz · vol zm oldz quotedz'thin overround)ZquotedZ gross_rejectr r8z hcss|]}|dVqdS)r,Nrr$rrrr r,r,r*z& live gateu" ← bestzno gatez≥ zc)rrrrz! livez z)zz;
LgScopenWRImpliedROI/betz
all poly-US confirm *—u
at these sample sizes every cell is within ~1 game of its implied count — league-level reads are noise, not signal.
u7
Scope column: live = armed for real money at $1; track = signals and forward test only, no orders.
* poly-US confirm = USL, PL1 and CH1, which have no Polymarket.com market at all, so the same strict rule uses Polymarket-US as the confirming book. Those leagues are listed above like any other and their total is repeated here so the mix can be decomposed. The n=286 +24.7% backtest used Poly.com as the confirming book — whether Poly-US confirms Pinnacle as well is untested.
Of those three only CH1 is armed (2026-09-05): it is the one with a verified Poly-US market, and it trades WITHOUT being in the frozen primary, so its bets stay in the poly-US row and never move the headline. USL and PL1 stay on paper.
rcSs g|]\}}|dr||fqS)rrrrrrrG r,rcSs |ddSNrrrrrrrr+H r,cSs*g|]"\}}|ds|ds||fqS)rZwarmr)rrrrrI s cSs |ddSr0rrrrrr+K r,cSs\|sd|d|dSd|d|d|dd|dddt|d d |d d d |S)Nz
z>nothing settled yet
LgStatenROI/betz
droppedzz9okzC
no league past warmup yet
Since freezenWRROI/betz
Before freeze — in-samplenWRROI/betz
KORuleLgMatchSidePriceCLVResult
zrrzs
xlow did not fire on a fixture that kicked off in the last 24 hours
a
All leagues, unlike the headline. This panel is a recent-activity view, so it covers everything being tracked — including the leagues added for collection, which the primary forward number excludes. It will not tie out to the Fwd ROI tile.
a
Paper. The real xlow ledger is the signals panel above. Prices are the ask the rule would have taken, so these are pre-fee.
A day is noise at this per-bet variance — the frozen decision point is n=1000, not a good afternoon.
rrzE
Market maker (z paper books)r6r8zB
Completion
r4z of r7z books with a fill
zC
Break-even
r"zpp margin
r+z3
At live gate ≥r rz
Modelled per book
zc at the gate
z.
from the two rows below
zK
completion vs break-even
zg
OutcomeBooksSharePer bookSpread (SD)
z%±r2z c
no fill — never at riskuY—0.00c—
DateLgMatchFilledLegsMin leg volGross @postRegimeP&L
These are CEILING numbers, not results. Fills here come from mm_settle, which counts any trade printed at or above our ask as ours — it ignores queue position, and its own docstring calls it a ceiling. The live quoter uses a stricter queue-aware test, and the two disagree: the settler scores 59 books as 2-of-3 while the quoter took no action on 39 of them, because it never believed two legs had sold. Completion rates and the P&L split above are therefore upper bounds. The live view is now being archived to mm_live_fills.csv so the gap can be measured rather than guessed at.rOrS · z aheadzT
Liquidity gate — live (rTz books in window passz
To KOLgMatchMin leg volAll three legsGateStage
no books in the rPzh window right now
rUrVzsnapshot u#m old — quoter may be downz snapshot zsnapshot age unknownz
gate ≥ z! on the thinnest leg (regime u) · z
last rz day(s): z! distinct books admitted, u4 turned away — the gate is letting through z of what it seesru · today rWz / rXa!
The reject column shows how far short a book fell, so a gate set too high shows up as a column of near-misses rather than as nothing at all. Books are counted once per day, and one that later trades enough volume to clear the gate stops counting as rejected.
rQz
Rows marked ahead of window are not decisions. The gate has not ruled on them and they are not in the admitted/turned-away counts above — they are there so you can see what is coming rather than only what is in the z#h window. Their volume is refreshedz every rz minz on a slow sweepz, not every cycle, because each one costs Kalshi calls. Volume only rises, so a book short of the gate this far out can still clear it by kickoff — read a pass here as a forecast, not a verdict.
r-z1
Why the gate is at z7 (threshold sweep)z
Min leg volumeBooks keptCompletedCompletion rateTotalPer book
Each row asks: if we had only quoted books whose thinnest leg had at least this much traded volume, what would have happened? Completion improves monotonically up to roughly 500–1,000 and then reverses — the highest threshold has the best completion rate and still loses money, plausibly adverse selection, since the busiest markets are where an informed counterparty is most likely to be the one lifting us. Raising the gate is not free.

This is in-sample: the threshold was chosen from these same books. It is frozen from 2026-08-09 (regime v4) to be judged on fresh ones. Books with no volume recorded are excluded rather than counted as zero.uflat fair + 2c, uncapped — sat above the market’s own ask on 86% of legs, so it essentially could not fill. 3h window, fired once from a 5-minute cron.zmargin staged by hours-to-kickoff (6/5/3/2/1c), capped at the market’s own ask and floored at fair. 12h window, persistent process polling every 20s.u5delayed completion — only cross into the bid inside the last hour before kickoff, plus a 0–5c price ladder. Earlier regimes completed the instant a book hit 2-of-3, in practice 8–10 hours early, paying ~2c to cross while the third leg still had most of its window to sell for free.uv3 plus the liquidity gate — quote only books whose thinnest leg has traded volume ≥500. Changes which books are quoted, not how they are priced, so it is a regime not a tweak: on 2026-08-09 it admitted 4 of 30 otherwise-playable books. Aimed at partial fills, which is where the losses live — a 2-of-3 book runs −7.62c while a complete one runs +1.38c.)Zv1Zv2Zv3Zv4r#r zO
What the regimes mean (live: zm
RegimeBooksLegsP&LPer legRule
—no settled books yet
z—uR
Regimes are different strategies, not tweaks — pooling them once produced a “today’s maker result” that blended three configurations logged hours apart. Each book carries the regime stamped at post time, so a mixed day cannot silently average them. Compare within a regime, never across.
u
A complete book earns the overround and is outcome-independent; a stranded one is a naked position on whichever side the market is moving toward — which is why 2-of-3 is the worst state, not 1-of-3. The gate quotes only books liquid enough to finish: on this history, min leg volume ≥500 lifted completion 36% → 60% and turned −1.84c/book into +3.01c. That threshold was chosen on this same data, so it is in-sample — it is frozen from 2026-08-09 to be judged on fresh books only.
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Soccer xlow tracker

:
rz · frozen rz( · $1/order cap both venues
r/rzz
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Forward test n=r   ROI rz   WR rruz % vs implied r% (z )   z=rrryzS

Signals — today & tomorrow (rz3 · r#rbz

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Forward test (out-of-sample)

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League issues (css |]}dtd|dVqdSr_r`r|rrrr r,)rbNameZIssuez;color:#c1272d">zI
all xlow-capable leagues have live feeds
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Generated by main/dashboard.py. Thin Poly-US books mark to a low bid, which overstates unrealised losses.
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Soccer xlow tracker

r\rz' · full dashboard attachedr/Nrz7csd|d|ddS)Nz2
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Open the attached dashboard.html for signals, positions, per-league forward test and league wiring health.
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