a WP~jo -@shdZddlZddlZddlZddlZddlZddlZddlZddl m Z ej ddddl Z ddlZddlmZmZmZddlZe dZe dZdZd Zd Zd Zd ZdxddZdZdZdZ dZ!dZ"da#d a$ddZ%dZ&dZ'ddZ(ddddd d!d"d#d$d$d$d%d&d'd(d)d*d+d,d-d.d/d0d1d2d2d2d2d2d2d2d2d2d3d3d4d4d5d5d6d6d7d8d9d:,Z)d;d<Z*d=d>Z+iZ,d?Z-d@dAZ.dBdCZ/dDZ0gdEZ1dFdGZ2dHdIZ3e dJZ4dKZ5dLZ6iZ7da8dydNdOZ9e dPZ:gdQZ;dRdSZdXdYZ?dZZ@eAZBdzd[d\ZCd]d^ZDd_d`ZEdadbZFdcddZGdedfZHdgdhZIdidjZJdkdlZKdmdnZLdodpZMdqdrZNdsdtZOdudvZPeQdwkrdePdS){a PAPER market maker for Kalshi soccer. Places NOTHING. Ever. WHAT IT DOES. Every cycle it looks at fixtures inside the pre-kickoff window, works out the quotes a market maker WOULD post, and writes them to a log. A separate script (mm_settle.py) later checks Kalshi's real trade history to see which of those quotes would have been hit, and what they settled for. WHY IT EXISTS. research/mm_feasibility.py measured, on 637 settled events, that the PASSIVE side of Kalshi soccer trades earns +30% in the first decile of a market's volume and loses in the last, monotonically. Makers pay no fee; takers pay 0.07*P*(1-P) (~4.4% of stake). So making is the structurally correct side. The one thing history CANNOT answer is capture -- what share of those fills you would actually win against whoever else is quoting. This logs the decisions so that question can be answered forward without risking money. THE RULES, all from measurement rather than taste: - WINDOW + TIME-STAGED MARGIN (2026-07-26 redesign). research/mm_decile_by_volume.py showed the passive-side edge is huge in a market's first ~30% of volume (t=+11.6, +7.2, +5.2 across the first three deciles) then fades to significantly NEGATIVE by the back half (t=-3.2 to -5.6). Separately, that first decile finishes at a MEDIAN of 2.7h before kickoff but a P90 of 4.7h -- so a fixed 3h window missed the earliest-starting tenth of events entirely. Two changes follow directly from that: 1. WINDOW_H widened to 5.0h to catch that P90 tail. Cost is negligible -- events see essentially no volume before 4-5h out anyway, so this mostly means quoting into empty air a little earlier, not wasted risk. 2. MARGIN now STAGES DOWN as kickoff approaches, via `margin_for(hrs)`, because we cannot observe "% of this event's eventual total volume" in real time (the total is unknown until the event ends) but we CAN observe hours-to-kickoff, which the historical data ties directly to volume decile: >= 2.5h -> 5.0c (the true "be first" phase; thin, high-edge) 1.5-2.5h -> 3.0c (still solidly positive, decile ~10-30%) 0.5-1.5h -> 2.0c (fading edge, decile ~30-50%; old flat default) < 0.5h -> 1.0c (decile 50%+ is where the historical edge turns NEGATIVE for the passive side -- quote thin here deliberately, mainly to allow complete_book() to finish a book that's already 2/3 filled, not to invite fresh exposure) These thresholds are read off the DECILE BOUNDARIES, not fitted to this project's own paper results (which remain far too few legs to fit anything to) -- but they are a first cut, not a proven schedule. Revisit once enough paper legs exist to check it directly. - REST, DON'T CHASE. Once a leg is posted, `cycle()` never rewrites its price in state -- the ask that decides whether a trade counts as a fill is always the ORIGINALLY posted one, even though a fresh (and possibly different) `our` is computed and logged every cycle for visibility. This was already true before today's redesign; it matters more now, because time-priority is the entire point of showing up early -- re-quoting down every cycle to chase the market would throw away exactly the priority this is meant to buy. - FAST, PERSISTENT POLLING. A 5-minute Task-Scheduler cron cannot be "first" against other makers who are plausibly resting continuously. Run as a persistent process (like live_monitor.py) with POLL_SECS in the tens of seconds, guarded by a restart task, rather than fired anew every 5 minutes. - NO SEPARATE OVERROUND GATE -- redundant once the ask is capped at the market's own ask (see below): our ask only gets hit when the market is already paying above our target, which is the condition the gate existed to detect. Kept only as logged fields (`over_mid`, `over_ask`) for later study. - CAP AT THE MARKET'S OWN ASK, FLOOR AT FAIR. The first version of this quoter asked a flat fair+2c with NO ceiling and sat above the market's own ask on 86% of legs (verified against the historical log) -- it essentially never had a chance to be lifted. `our = min(target, market_ask)`, and if the market's own ask is already below our fair estimate, we skip that leg entirely (selling below your own fair in isolation is guaranteed-negative EV, and a stale/bad Pinnacle read should not be able to force one). - LEVEL from PINNACLE, not from our own models. Elo and form features were measurably WORSE than the closing line (1.012 vs 0.985 log loss on 32k fixtures), and as a maker your fair value IS your protection -- quoting off a worse number just donates to anyone using a better one. SAFETY: there is no live-order code path in this file at all. It imports no trader module. The only way this places an order is if someone writes one. Usage: python main\mm_quoter.py [--once] N)PathzE:\soccer\main)build_event_tickerfind_event_by_abrsget_abrz&E:\soccer\research\mm_paper_quotes.csvz&E:\soccer\research\mm_paper_state.jsong(@ T))g"@@)@@)r @)@@)??X@cCs`d}tD]\}}||kr|}q"qtt|d|ddd}tdtd||S)aSPremium in cents over the market ask, decaying toward the touch. A per-leg offset of -1/0/+1 (md5-stable) is kept so that at any given time different legs sit at different rungs. Without it, price and time-to-kickoff would be perfectly confounded and the fill curve could never be separated from a time-of-day effect. |r)DECAYinthashlibZmd5encodeZ hexdigestmaxmin)eventsidehrsbaseZcutvalZoffr"E:\soccer\main\mm_quoter.pyarm_fors *r$rr g.@iircCshddl}|tdkrtSz(t}|tkatsBtd|dWntyZdaYn0|atS)zFalse when API-Football is nearly spent. Cached 5 min; fails OPEN so a status-endpoint hiccup never silently halts quoting.rN,z [quota] API-Football down to z -- pausing quotingT)time_quota_checked_at _quota_okLMZget_api_remainingAF_QUOTA_FLOORprint Exception)_tZ remainingr"r"r#quota_oks  r.Zv4r c Cs.ztt|dWSttfy(YdS0dS)Nrr)roundfloat TypeError ValueError)xr"r"r#_numsr4zAmerica/Argentina/Buenos_AireszAmerica/Sao_PaulozAmerica/SantiagozAmerica/Bogotaz America/LimazAmerica/Mexico_CityzAmerica/TorontozAmerica/New_Yorkz Asia/Seoulz Asia/Shanghaiz Asia/Tokyoz Europe/OslozEurope/StockholmzEurope/Copenhagenz Europe/Warsawz Europe/PraguezEurope/Bucharestz Europe/Zurichz Europe/ZagrebzEurope/Istanbulz Europe/Athensz Europe/Londonz Europe/Madridz Europe/Romez Europe/Berlinz Europe/PariszEurope/AmsterdamzEurope/Brusselsz Europe/Lisbon),ZAR1ZBSAZBR2ZCL1ZCO1ZPE1ZMX1ZCANZMLSZUSLZNWSLZKO1ZCN1ZJP1ZNO1ZSE1ZDK1ZPL1ZCZ1ZRO1ZCH1ZHR1ZT1ZG1ZE0ZE1ZE2ZE3ZECZSC0ZSC1ZSC2ZSC3ZSP1ZSP2ZI1ZI2ZD1ZD2ZF1ZF2ZN1ZB1ZP1cCsdt|p d}|sdSzddlm}|||}WntyLYdS0t|j|j ddS)zDHour-of-day (float) in the league's own timezone, or '' if unmapped.rr)ZoneInfoN@) LEAGUE_TZgetupperZzoneinfor5Z astimezoner,r/ZhourZminute)divnowzr5tr"r"r# _local_hour>s  r?cCs&t|}|r"t||ddSdS)N @r7r)_ptr/ total_seconds) open_timer<r>r"r"r#_age_hKsrD<cCs|||t|f}t|}|r:t|dtkr:|dSz.ddl}|jt|||t|dpdi}Wnty~i}Yn0t|ft|<|S)zG{'home_bid':..,'home_ask':..,...} from Polymarket.com, or {} if absent.rrN)Zleague) str _PC_CACHEr9r&_PC_TTLZpolymarket_liveZget_all_pricesr:r,)r;homeaway game_datekeyZhitZ_plrr"r"r#poly_com_prices\s &  rNcCs4|dkr dS|dkrdS|dkr$dS|dkr0dSdS) aACents above fair to target, staged by hours-to-kickoff. Derived from research/mm_decile_by_volume.py's per-event decile results: decile 0-10% t=+11.58, 10-20% t=+7.16, 20-30% t=+5.20 (all strongly positive for the passive/maker side), fading through 30-50% (t=+1.49, +2.40), flat at 50-60% (t=+0.08), then SIGNIFICANTLY NEGATIVE from 60% onward (t=-1.54 to -5.57). First-decile timing: median 2.7h before kickoff, p90 4.7h. This maps volume deciles (unobservable live -- the event's eventual total volume isn't known until it's over) onto hours-to-kickoff (observable live) via that median timing. The >=5h stage was added with WINDOW_H 5->12: the 5-12h bucket is the RICHEST in the whole dataset at +15.85% maker ROI, so ask wider there -- though it is only 2.1% of volume, so expect few fills, and treat the wide ask as "priced for how rarely anyone shows up", not as free money. FIRST CUT, not fitted to this project's own paper results -- there are nowhere near enough legs yet to fit anything to. Revisit once there are. rr r rr g?r rr")Z hrs_to_kor"r"r# margin_forksrOg@@) tsr;rIrJkickoffr leg_tickerrpin_fairk_bidk_askover_midover_askour_ask competitivesize collateralreasonarmbid_sizeask_sizevolumerC mkt_age_h open_interest volume_24hno_bidno_ask local_hourregimepc_bidpc_askcCs4ddl}z|tWSty.iYS0dS)Nr)jsonloadsSTATE read_textr,)rjr"r"r# load_states  rncCs ddl}t|j|dddS)Nrrindent)rjrl write_textdumps)strjr"r"r# save_statesrtz%E:\soccer\research\mm_gate_state.jsonr%r"c Csbddl}z>z|t}Wnty4i}Yn0|dpBi}|}||ggd}t |dppgt |dpg}} |D]0} | dd| d } | d r|n| | q| |8} t |t | |d<|d<t |dt D]} | | dqt|j|ttttt |d d d t |dd d |dddWnty\Yn0dS)aSnapshot of what the liquidity gate is doing to the books in window. `ahead` is DISPLAY ONLY and is deliberately kept out of the daily tallies: those have to keep meaning "books the gate actually ruled on that day", or the admitted-share stat would start counting books hours before they were ever quotable, and a book that was thin at 30h but fat by 10h would be tallied on the strength of a reading the gate never acted on. rNdaily)admittedrejectedrwrxr;rmatchpasscSs|dSNrr"rMr"r"r#z#_write_gate_state..)rLcSs|dSr{r"r|r"r"r#r}r~)rPgatergZwindow_hZ sweep_secsr<aheadrvrro)rjrk GATE_STATErmr,r9date isoformat setdefaultsetaddsortedGATE_KEEP_DAYSpoprqrrMIN_LEG_VOLUMEREGIMEWINDOW_HGATE_SWEEP_SECS) Zrowsr<rrjprevrvtodaydZadmZrejrMrLkr"r"r#_write_gate_states>    &  rz$E:\soccer\research\mm_live_fills.csvZ released_atrrRrrQrXfilled fill_kindfill_px completed flattened book_closed queue_aheadvol_cumvolume_at_postrgcCs:zt }ttdddd}tj|td}|r:||tj tj j  |dd||dd|dd|d dtt|d |d d|d dtt|d tt|dtt|d|dd|dd|dd|dtdWdn1s0YWnty4Yn0dS)aRecord what the LIVE quoter believed about a leg, before its state is dropped. WHY THIS EXISTS. There are two incompatible definitions of "filled" in this system and only one of them was ever persisted: * the LIVE quoter uses paper_filled() -- queue-aware, a lower bound, and it is what actually drives complete_book()/flatten_stalled(); * mm_settle uses fill_from_quotes() -- optimistic, its own docstring calls it a CEILING. Every number we report (completion rate, the P&L split by legs filled, the liquidity-gate sweep) comes from the settler, so we have been analysing the ceiling while the quoter acted on the lower bound. That gap is why the settler scores 59 books as 2-of-3 while the quoter took no action on 39 of them -- it never believed two legs had sold. Persisting the live view is the only way to measure the gap instead of guessing at it. Append-only; failures are swallowed so bookkeeping can never break quoting. arutf-8newlineencodingZ fieldnamesrrrQrXrrrrrrrrrrgrN) LIVE_FILLSexistsopencsv DictWriterLIVE_FILL_FIELDS writeheaderwriterowdtdatetimer<timezoneutcrr9rboolrr,)Zleg_keyvnewfhwr"r"r#_archive_states,      ,rc Csxt|D]j}ztj||d}Wn"tyF||dYqYn0||dkrt|||||dq|S)aFree collateral once kickoff is >4h past: the match has finished and the paper position has settled. Archives the live view first -- see _archive_state; without that the quoter's own belief is lost forever and only the optimistic settler survives to be analysed.rQNi@8)listrr fromisoformatr,rrBr)rsr<rkor"r"r#release_expired"s    rcCstdd|DS)Ncss|]}|ddVqdS)r[rNr9.0rr"r"r# 4r~zcommitted..)sumvaluesrsr"r"r# committed3srcs(dd|D}t|fdd|DS)NcSsg|] }d|qS)rr"rr"r"r# 8r~zdevig..csg|] }|qSr"r"rsr"r#r:r~)r)oimpr"rr#devig7srZactivecCs^d}|D]P}|dpd}|tkrd}|dvr|tvrt|td|d|q|S)aKalshi's own view: are all three legs tradeable right now? Requiring `active` is not merely a guard, it is the precondition for what we are about to do -- a resting order cannot be placed on a market that is not active. Observed values are `active` (open), `inactive` (halted at kickoff) and `finalized` (settled); anything else is logged ONCE so a new status shows up in the output instead of silently stopping the quoter. TZstatusrF)ZinactiveZ finalizedrz- [status] unrecognised Kalshi market status z on )r9lower _TRADEABLE_seen_odd_statusrr+)legs event_tickerZokmrsr"r"r#kalshi_playableAs  rcCs<z td|dd}|dgWSty6gYS0dS)Nz/marketsr)rlimitZmarkets)kt_getr9r,)rrMr"r"r#legs_forUs  rc Cst|p d}|sdSt|t|}}|r4|s8dSt||||t||||fD]}t|rT|SqTzt|||}|r|ndWStyYdS0dS)Nr)mapsZleague_kalshi_seriesr:rrrrr,) r;rKrIrJZseriesZhaaaever"r"r# resolve_event]s      rcCsF|dd}|dvrdS|dddd}||rBdSd S) zhome / draw / away for a leg, from the ticker suffix. Team codes are 2-4 chars (KC, SJ, LAFC), so a fixed [:3] slice mis-assigns ~2% of legs -- strip the 7-char date prefix and use startswith instead. -)ZTIEZDRAWdrawrNrIrJ)splitr: startswith)rRrrIrJsuffixZmidr"r"r#leg_sideos  rcCsd|d|S)zIKalshi taker fee per contract, verified against real fills: 0.07*P*(1-P).gQ?rr")Zpricer"r"r# taker_fee|src Cs8ztjt|ddWSttfy2YdS0dS)aParse to an aware datetime. NEVER compare timestamp strings directly -- quote times carry +00:00, kickoffs carry -04:00, Kalshi trades carry Z, and lexicographic comparison of those three formats is not meaningful (this silently filtered out 100% of trades in an earlier version of this function, which is how the paper quoter reported a 0-completion day while genuinely believing every book was still open).Zz+00:00N)rrrrFreplacer2r1rr"r"r#rAsrAc Cs|dus|durdSt|dp$|}gdd}}} | dkr|dd} |rT|| d<ztd | } WntyzYqYn0| d g} || 7}| d 7} | d}|r| sqt| d d } | dur6| |kr6qq6|}d}|D]}t|d }|dus||kr|ksqqz8t|dp&d}t|dpF|dpFd}WnttfyhYqYn0||dkr||7}||kr|}q|rt|dd|d|d<||kr| |d<|dd|ddkS)a$QUEUE-AWARE fill test. Are we actually at the front of the queue yet? A print at our price is NOT our fill. In a FIFO book the buyer takes the size already resting at that price first, and at the touch that is 1,749-44,427 contracts (measured on Kalshi). The old test ("did anyone print at or above our ask") therefore counted other makers' fills as ours, and did so in a DIRECTIONAL way: at +0c we join the touch behind a huge queue, while at +3c/+5c we are alone at our price. So it flattered exactly the cheap arms and left the expensive ones honest, which biased the whole price-ladder result. Measured on 2026-07-29 (research/queue_aware_fill.py): optimistic 48% of legs filled vs 40% queue-aware; at +0c specifically 100% vs 67%. THE MODEL: we are filled once cumulative volume traded at or above our ask, since we posted, EXCEEDS the depth that was resting at our price when we posted. Trades above our price count too -- the book walked up through us. `queue_ahead` is set at post time: the touch depth if we joined the touch, else 0 (nobody else is showing our price). It is deliberately PESSIMISTIC -- makers ahead of us can cancel, which we cannot observe -- so this is a lower bound where the old test was an upper bound. Truth is between; logging both (`vol_cum`) lets that gap be measured later rather than guessed. Volume is accumulated against a WATERMARK so each cycle only counts trades it has not already seen. One API call per unfilled leg per cycle, same as before. NF vol_watermarkr)tickerrcursorz/markets/tradestradesrrZ created_timerZyes_price_dollarsZcount_fpcount& .>rr7r) rAr9rrr,r0r1r2r/r)Z state_legrRrXZsince_dtZ kickoff_dtr<ZmarkrrZpagesprZtrZoldestZnewestZaddedr3r>ZpxZcntr"r"r# paper_filledsR     "$   rc sfdd|D} t| dkr$dSfdd| D} t| dkrFdS| d} | dsj| drndS| |d tkrdS|| d} d| krdksndS| d }| |d t| d }| D]}d |d <qd | d<t| d| d<t|d| d<|| d<|||||| | | dt| ddt| dt d| dd|dd| ddt| d dd|dd dt d|d|d|d | dd!| dd"|dd#|dddS)$a,A book stuck at 1-of-3 near kickoff: BUY BACK the one sold leg, go flat. WHY THIS EXISTS SEPARATELY FROM complete_book(). complete_book fires only at EXACTLY 2-of-3 -- with one leg sold and two unsold it does nothing, so the book walked into kickoff as a naked directional short. On 2026-07-29 that happened to EIGHT legs across both venues. WHY BUY BACK RATHER THAN COMPLETE. Completing a 1-of-3 book needs TWO crossings (~4.6c); buying back needs ONE (~2.3c) and leaves zero exposure. WHY AT ALL, given naked legs are roughly break-even. Measured (Monte Carlo on the 2026-07-29 legs, n=200k): mean -0.04, MEDIAN +5.30, 1st pct -34.70. Mean ~zero because we sell at fair, but a long left tail with a positive median -- the shape that reads as edge for weeks then gives it back. Worse, it is unmeasurable: detecting even a $0.50/day naked edge against $12.34 daily noise needs ~2,400 days. And it BURIES the signal we actually care about -- on 2026-07-29 complete books made -$0.22 while naked legs swung +$7.50, 34x the noise. So this trades a small certain fee for the ability to measure whether market making works at all. Honest cost: buy-back is slightly NEGATIVE EV if we truly sell above fair. That is accepted deliberately, not overlooked. cs*g|]"}|vr|dkr|qSrrrr>rrsr"r#rr~z#flatten_stalled..rrcsg|]}|dr|qSrrrrr"r#rr~rrrr@rXdTrr7Z flatten_pxZflatten_cost_cZ flattened_atrr]zFLATTEN_1OF3: bought back z sold @.2fz at ask z, fee z c => cost +.1fz c/contract)rPr;rIrJrQrrRrrXrYrZr]rgr\z [FLATTEN]   vs z: bought back z @z (sold z) -> ) lenr9rBCOMPLETE_BEFORE_KO_Hrr/rrSIZErr+)rsrrbookwriterr<r;rIrJrminertgtZaskZsoldZcost_cr-r"rr#flatten_stalleds`           rc sBfdd|D} t| dkr$dStfdd| Dr>dSfdd| D} t| dkr`dS| d} | d rzdS| |d } | tkrdS|| d}d|krdksndStfd d| D|}|d d t|d }d| d <d| d<t| d}|| d<|r@t ||dnd| d<d | d<|| d<d| d<| ||||| | | dd| dd||| dddt |ddt t d |t dd|d ddt|d dd|d d!d"t d#|d$|d%|d&| dd'|d(d)|d d! dS)*a1If exactly one leg of a 3-leg book is still unfilled, SELL it into the bid. WHY. A complete book is riskless: three asks each ~2c above fair sum to ~1.06, so you collect ~106c against a fixed 100c payout and the result does not matter. An INCOMPLETE book is a naked directional short. Measured on the first six paper matches: four complete books all landed near +7c/contract, while the two incomplete ones lost 48-50c. Completing the Korean books at the bid would have turned -$6.90 into +$4.26. Cost of completing is one taker fee (~1.7c at 57c) plus giving up the bid-ask. That is cheap against a 50c tail -- the opposite conclusion to "hedging costs 1.5c against a 2.5c edge", which measured the fee against the per-leg edge instead of against the risk being removed. cs*g|]"}|vr|dkr|qSrrrrr"r#r;r~z!complete_book..rrc3s|]}|dVqdS)rNrrrr"r#r>r~z complete_book..csg|]}|ds|qSrrrrr"r#r@r~rrr@c3s(|] }|dr|dVqdS)rrXNrrrr"r#r^r~rrTr posted_at filled_atr fill_secsrrZcompleted_at_bidactionrrSr7z COMPLETE_AT_BID: book collected .0fzc, fee .1fzc => rzc/contract locked)rPr;rIrJrQrrRrrSrTrUrVrWrXrYrZr[r\z [COMPLETE] rrz: sold z at bid rz -> ) ranyr9rBrrrrArr/rrr+)rsrrrrr<r;rIrJrrZunfilledrZhrs_leftZbidZ collectedZnet_cZ_pr"rr# complete_book,s^     $         & rc Csz|dptj}t|tr,tj|}t|dddd\}}tj|j |j |j t |t |t tjddd|fWStyYd S0dS) a(kickoff_dt, game_date) for a watchlist row, or (None, None). Watchlist kickoff is HH:MM ET on the game date. Factored out of cycle() so the in-window quoting pass and the out-of-window telemetry sweep cannot drift apart on how they read a fixture's time. rKrQ:Nr7)Zhours)Ztzinfo)NN)r9rrr isinstancerFrrrZyearZmonthZdayrrZ timedeltar,)rgdZhhZmmr"r"r#_ko_ofws   r cCstt|||d|d}|s"dSt|}t|dks@t||sDdSdd|D}|r^t|ndtdd |DfS) z(minvol, sorted vols) for one fixture on Kalshi, or None if it is not a playable 3-leg book there. Exactly the reads the in-window pass makes.rIrJNrcSsg|]}t|dpdqS volume_fprr0r9rLr"r"r#rr~z_gate_probe..rcss|]}t|dVqdSrNr/rr"r"r#rr~z_gate_probe..)rr9rrrrr)r;rrrrvolsr"r"r# _gate_probesrc Csvtttk}gt}}|D] }t|\}}|dur|+d5d?}-d<}(|*r.|d d@s.|'dur.|ddA}.| t1kr\|!n|'}/t,-t|/d%d1d2}/|/|.d3kr.|/|ddA<|/|!d3krt| ddBdpdnd |ddC<d |ddD<|2|ddE<|2|ddF<d|d dGd|ddG<|,r|*s|&st|)d| 2|'||t||dHdqBt?||t@||tA|||fS)[N)rrrr@rrrIrJrcSsg|]}t|dpdqSr r )rrr"r"r#rr~zcycle..rrrr7rcss|]}t|dVqdSrrrr"r"r#rr~zcycle..r)r;ryrrrrzrZfid)Zmax_ageZyes_bid_dollarsZyes_ask_dollarsrZyes_bid_size_fpZyes_ask_size_fpr rCZopen_interest_fpZ volume_24h_fpZno_bid_dollarsZno_ask_dollars)rCrbrcrdrecss|]\}}||dVqdS)r7Nr"rbrr"r"r#rr~css|]\}}|VqdSNr"rr"r"r#rr~css|]\}}|VqdSr r"rr"r"r#rr~rrZgross_cZ gross_rejectrquotedc3s|]}|VqdSr rrr)pinr"r#rJr~)hrrr$rr)rIrrJgY@rz market ask rz is rzc below our fair z.3fz (> z3c tolerance) -- our number is likely stale, skippedFzno collateral: need $, $z freerrX)rrrrrrZ repriced_atZ reprice_count)r[rQrXrrrSrrrYr]rgrrr)rrr)rPr;rIrJrQrrRrrSrTrUrVrWrXrYrZr[r\r]r^r_r`cs&i|]}|di|dqS)rrrr")rextrar"r# szcycle..Z_bidZ_ask)rarfrgrhrirrrQTrrrZnaturalrcSsg|] }|dqS)rr"r r"r"r#rr~)Br.r)Zload_watchlist_filerrr<rrrrnr rBrr9r:rrrrrr/rrrZfixture_playableZPLAYABLE_BACKSTOP_TTLr0r1r2r4rr MAX_SPREAD_C GROSS_GATE_CZfetch_prematch_oddsallrdictrNrr$rO AB_ENABLEDFAIR_TOLERANCE_CmathZceilrBANKROLLrrrrrrrrDr?rrArrrflushrrrt)5rr_rr<rsr!rZ gate_rowsrrrrr;rrrrZgrowrZdepthrrrVrWZover_bidZb365ZfairZfmapZpcrr]ZbbrZfair_cZtarget_cZ ceiling_cZour_cZskip_below_fairZourZcompZneedalreadyZavailZfundedr\Zcurrr>rZpostedZleg_koZ_tkr")rr(r#r#cycles|          &             !$ "           r5c Cs dtjv}t }ttdddd}tj|td}|r>|t dt dt d t d d t td d zBt||\}}t tjdd|d|rd|dndWn>ty}z&t tjdd|WYd}~n d}~00|rqttqj|dS)Nz--oncerrrrrzPAPER quoter running (window z/h, staged margin 6/5/3/2/1c by hrs-to-KO, size z , bankroll $rr&rz committed). Places nothing.z%H:%M:%Sz logged quotes on z legsz , completed z book(s)z cycle error: )sysargvOUTrrrrFIELDSrr+rrr1rrnr5rrr<r,r&sleep POLL_SECSclose)oncerrrncrr"r"r#mains0     0 r@__main__)rr)r")r)R__doc__r6osrr&r0rrrpathlibrpathinsertrZ kalshi_traderrZ kalshi_liverrrZ live_monitorr)r8rlrr;rr.rr$rr+r*rr*r'r(r.rr/r4r8r?rDrGrHrNrOr1r9rnrtrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrArrrr rrr5r@__name__r"r"r"r#sL !   & )+   \BK +P