a yxj^@spdZddlZddlZddlZddlZddlZddlZddlZddl m Z ej ddddl ZddlZddlZe dZe dZdZdZd Zd Zd Zd Zd ZdZdZdZdZddZddZ dZ!dZ"d=ddZ#iZ$dZ%ddZ&dd Z'gd!Z(d"d#Z)d$d%Z*d&d'Z+d(d)Z,d*d+Z-d,d-Z.d.d/Z/d Z0d0Z1d1a2da3d2d3Z4d4d5Z5d6d7Z6d8d9Z7d:d;Z8e9daPAPER market maker for POLYMARKET US. Places NOTHING. Ever. Parallel to mm_quoter.py (Kalshi) so the two venues can be compared on identical rules, identical fair values, and the same 0-5c price ladder. Everything that differs is a property of the venue, not of the strategy. WHY POLY-US IS WORTH TRACKING SEPARATELY. On the numbers, it should be a better venue for this strategy on every axis we can measure: MAKER REBATE, not a fee. Poly-US credits the maker 0.0125*C*p*(1-p) at fill (docs.polymarket.us/fees, effective 2026-07-01) where Kalshi pays exactly zero. On a typical three-leg book (54/27/21) that is +0.76c/contract. CHEAPER TAKER for the completions we cannot avoid: 0.06*p*(1-p) vs Kalshi 0.07. Together these drop the break-even gross from +2.38c (Kalshi) to +1.42c. That matters because the 1c tick quantises gross into 0c/1c/2c/3c buckets -- on Kalshi only 3c books clear (2 of our first 9); on Poly-US ordinary 2c books do, which roughly triples the eligible population. SHALLOW BOOKS: depth of 7-20 contracts vs Kalshi's 1,749-44,427. Our central unsolved problem on Kalshi is queue position -- with 44k ahead of us we are never reached. Here we would rest near the front. SAFETY. This module imports poly_us_prices (read-only market data) and never poly_us_trader. There is no code path in this file that can place an order. FILL MODEL, and its known bias. Poly-US has no public per-market trade feed on the retail API (candlesticks live on the institutional host, which our key is not authorised for -- verified 2026-07-29). So a fill is inferred from `currentPx`, the last trade price returned by the BBO endpoint: if at any poll currentPx has reached our ask, someone traded there and a resting order would have been hit. This is COARSER than the Kalshi model in one direction and more conservative in another: we only see the LAST trade, so a print above our ask that reverts inside a 20-second poll is invisible, which UNDER-counts fills. Kalshi's model, by contrast, sees every print and so over-counts. Do not compare raw fill rates across the two venues without accounting for that. Usage: python main\mm_quoter_polyus.py [--once] N)PathzE:\soccer\mainz'E:\soccer\research\mm_polyus_quotes.csvz'E:\soccer\research\mm_polyus_state.jsong(@ @?@g.@g@@zpus-v1gQ?g?cCst|d|SN) TAKER_THETApr "E:\soccer\main\mm_quoter_polyus.py taker_feeMsrcCst|d|Sr) MAKER_THETAr r r r maker_rebateQsrT))g"@@)@@)r@)rr)?rX@cCs`d}tD]\}}||kr|}q"qtt|d|ddd}tdtd||S)aSPremium in cents over the market ask, decaying toward the touch. A per-leg offset of -1/0/+1 (md5-stable) is kept so that at any given time different legs sit at different rungs. Without it, price and time-to-kickoff would be perfectly confounded and the fill curve could never be separated from a time-of-day effect. |r r)DECAYinthashlibZmd5encodeZ hexdigestmaxmin)eventsidehrsbaseZcutvalZoffr r rarm_forms *r(<cCs|||t|f}t|}|r:t|dtkr:|dSz.ddl}|jt|||t|dpdi}Wnty~i}Yn0t|ft|<|S)zG{'home_bid':..,'home_ask':..,...} from Polymarket.com, or {} if absent.rr N)Zleague) str _PC_CACHEgettime_PC_TTLZpolymarket_liveZget_all_pricesupper Exception)divhomeaway game_datekeyZhitZ_plrr r rpoly_com_pricess &  r7cCs4|dkr dS|dkrdS|dkr$dS|dkr0dSdS) Nrrrrrg?rrr )r%r r r margin_fors     r8tsr1r2r3kickoff event_slug market_slugr$pin_fairZp_bidZp_askZlast_pxover_askour_ask competitivesizeZ bid_depthZ ask_depthZrebate_creasonarmregimeZpc_bidZpc_askc CsPztjt|dd}Wnttfy4YdS0|jr@|S|jtjj dS)NZz+00:00tzinfo) dtdatetime fromisoformatr*replace ValueError TypeErrorrHtimezoneutc)sdr r r_pts rScs(dd|D}t|fdd|DS)NcSsg|] }d|qS)rr .0xr r r zdevig..csg|] }|qSr r rTrQr rrWrX)sum)or6r rYrdevigsr\cCs8tr4zttjddWSty2iYS0iS)Nutf-8encoding)STATEexistsjsonloads read_textr0r r r r load_states   recCstjtj|dddddS)Nr )indentr]r^)r`Z write_textrbdumpsstr r r save_statesrjcCsTt|||}|sdS|ds4|ds4|dr8dS|dpDd}|tjvS)aPoly-US's own view of whether this match is on. Mirrors live_monitor.NOT_PLAYED against the event's `period` field, which carries API-Football-style short codes ('NS', '1H', 'FT', 'PST', ...). Unknown/absent -> True, so a missing field degrades to "quote it" and the API-Football backstop still has the last word, rather than silently stopping us on every event whose period Poly-US has not populated. FZendedclosedZarchivedperiodr)prices find_eventr,r/LMZ NOT_PLAYED)r1r2r3erlr r rpolyus_playables rqc st|||}|sdSdd|dp(gD}t|dkr>dSit}d|fd|ffD]<\}}t||||}|s|dS|d||<|dqZfd d|D} t| d krdS| d |d <||dd fS)aS{'home': slug, 'draw': slug, 'away': slug} or None. find_market() only knows home/away, so the draw is taken as the remaining market once both teams are matched -- and we require EXACTLY three markets and both teams identified before accepting, so a partial match can never silently assign the wrong slug to the draw. NcSs&g|]}t|dddr|qS)slugrzatc-)r*r, startswithrUmr r rrWsz resolve_legs..Zmarketsrr2r3rrcs g|]}|dvr|dqS)rrr rtZusedr rrWrXr rdrawr)rmrnr,lensetZ find_marketadd) r1r2r3rpZmkoutr$Zteamrurestr rvr resolve_legss$     r}cCsHt|D]:}t||d}|dus6||dkr||dq|S)aDrop legs whose kickoff is >4h past -- the match has finished and the paper position has settled. ADDED 2026-07-30. The Kalshi quoter did this from the start; this one did not, so state accumulated every book forever -- 12 stale books from the previous day were still being carried, some up to 23h past kickoff. Nothing is lost by dropping them: mm_polyus_quotes.csv logs every leg every cycle and is the durable record. State is only the set of CURRENTLY resting orders. r;Ni@8)listrSr, total_secondspop)rinowkkor r rrelease_expireds rircCshddl}|tdkrtSz(t}|tkatsBtd|dWntyZdaYn0|atS)zBFalse when API-Football is nearly spent. Cached 5 min; fails OPEN.rNi,z [quota] API-Football down to z -- pausing quotingT)r-_quota_checked_at _quota_okroZget_api_remainingAF_QUOTA_FLOORprintr0)_tZ remainingr r rquota_oks  rc,sts dSt\}}tjtjj}tt |}d}}|D]r}| dpPd } | t j vrbq>| d} t| trtj| } zTt|dddd\} } tj| j| j| jt| t| ttjd d d } WntyYq>Yn0| |d }d|krtksq>q>t| |d |d}|s6q>|\}}t| |d |dsVq>tj| dtjdspq>i|D]\}}t |}|r| dr| dsiq4d|dkr|dkrdksniq4t!t"| dpdt"| dpdt#kr(iq4||<q|st$fddD}t$fddD}||dt%kr|q>|ddt&krq>t'| d\}r>t(fdddDsq>t)dddg}t*|d|d|dd }t+| |d |d| }|D]\}}|}t,|||}||d}|t-|}t.|ddd!t/rd|nd"}t.t!||d!} | |t0k}!ddl1}"|!s|"2| d#nd}#|! o|#duo|#|dd$k}$|!sdn$d%|dd&d'||d(d)t0d*d+}%|}&|&|vr||& d,s|#dur||&d-}'|t3kr>|dn|#}(|"2t.|(dd!d#}(|(|'d$kr|(||&d-<|4||&d.<d||& d/d||&d/<|!s|&|vr|||#t.||d0| 4d1d1|t5| |d |d|4d2 ||&<|6|4| |d |d| 4|||t.||d0|d|d| d3t.|d0|#rJt.|#dndt|$t7| d| d|#r|t.t8|#dd4nd|%|t5| |d5d| |d6dd7||$rdnd7}q|D]\}}| |})|)r|) d,s|) d8rqʈ| d3}*|*dur|*|)d-d$krd9|)d,<|)d-|)d:<|4|)d;<|)d-}+t.t8|+d0|)d<<d=|)d><q|t9||||| ||| | 7}|t:||||| ||| | 7}|;q>t<|||fS)?N)rrrZlcrr4r;:)ZhoursrGg @r2r3Zfid)Zmax_agebestBidbestAskr ZbidDepthZaskDepthc3s|]}|dVqdS)rNr rUrQbookr r mrXzcycle..c3s|]}|dVqdS)rNr rrr rrnrXdrc3s|]}|VqdS)Nr,)rUr)pinr rrurX)hrRarrRr)r2rwr3rgY@g& .>z market ask .2fz below our fair z.3fz by > z.1fz c -- skippedfilledr@Z repriced_atZ reprice_countF) r#r$r@r>r;r completedrDrEr1r2r3Z posted_atZ currentPxrZ_bidZ_askr9 book_closedTfill_px filled_atrebateZnatural fill_kind)=rroZload_watchlist_filerIrJrrOrPrrer,r/rmZ LEAGUE_SLUG isinstancer*daterKsplitZyearZmonthZdayrZ timedeltar0rWINDOW_Hr}rqZfixture_playableZPLAYABLE_BACKSTOP_TTLitemsZget_bbor"float MIN_LEG_DEPTHrZ MAX_SPREAD_C GROSS_GATE_CZfetch_prematch_oddsallr\dictr7r(r8round AB_ENABLEDFAIR_TOLERANCE_CmathZceilCOMPLETE_BEFORE_KO_H isoformatREGIMEwriterowSIZEr complete_bookflatten_stalledflushrj),writerfh_ZmatchesrriZquotedrrur1gdZhhmirr%Zgotlegsr<r$rrbr?Zover_bidZb365ZfairZfmapZpcZbbrDZfair_cZtarget_cZ ceiling_cZour_cskiprZourZcomprCr5ZcurtgtrQZlastr r )rrrcycle+s           .       " $            rc sfdd|D} t| dkr&dSfdd| D} t| dksL|tkrPdS| d} | dst| drxdS| d } || d }d|krdksndS| d }||d t|d }| D]}d |d<q҈| d t|dt|d|d||||d|d|| | | t|ddt | dt d| d|dd|ddt|d dd|dd dt d|d|dd|dd | d!|dd"|dd#|dddS)$aBook stuck at 1-of-3 near kickoff: buy back the one sold leg, go flat. Mirror of mm_quoter.flatten_stalled -- see the long note there for why this exists separately from complete_book (which only fires at exactly 2-of-3) and why a slightly negative-EV fee is worth paying to stop naked legs burying the signal. Poly-US differs only in the fee (0.06 vs 0.07) and in the book being keyed by side rather than by ticker. csg|]}|vr|qSr r rUZs_rhr rrWrXz#flatten_stalled..rrcsg|]}|dr|qSrrrrhr rrWrXr flattenedrr$rr@rTrr)rZ flatten_pxZflatten_cost_cZ flattened_atr2r3rDzFLATTEN_1OF3: bought back z sold @rz at ask z, fee z c => cost +.1fz c/contract)r:r1r2r3r;r<r=r$r@rArBrDrErCz [FLATTEN]   vs z: bought back z @z (sold z) -> ) valuesrxrr,rupdaterrrrrr)rirrrrrr%rur1r<minerrr$ZaskZsoldZcost_crr rhrrsT       $ rc sfdd|D} t| dkr&dStfdd| Dr@dSfdd| D} t| dksf|tkrjdS| d} | d } || d }d|krdksndStfd d| D|}tfd d| D}|d |dt|d}| dd||dd||||d|d|| | | t |ddt d|ddd|dddt|ddd|dd |  dt dt d|d |dd!|dd"| d#|dd$|dd dS)%a Cross the last unsold leg into the bid, but only near kickoff. Same rule as Kalshi (see mm_quoter.complete_book): firing the instant a book hits 2-of-3 cost ~2c per book for nothing, because the third leg still had most of its window to sell for free. csg|]}|vr|qSr r rrhr rrWrXz!complete_book..rrc3s|]}|dVqdS)rNrrrhr rrrXz complete_book..csg|]}|ds|qSrrrrhr rrWrXr r$rc3s(|] }|dr|dVqdS)rr@Nrrrhr rrrXc3s,|]$}|dr|ddVqdS)rrrNrrrhr rrrXrrTr)rrrrrr2r3rzCOMPLETE_AT_BID: collected z.0fz c, rebates rzc, fee zc => rzc/contract lockedrD)r:r1r2r3r;r<r=r$r@rArBrCrDrEz [COMPLETE] rrz: sold z at bid z -> )rrxanyrrZrrrrrrr,rr)rirrrrrr%rur1r<rZunfilledrr$ZbidZ collectedZrebatesZnet_cr rhrrsL     $ rc Csdtjv}t }ttdddd}tj|td}|r>|t dt dt d t d zBt ||\}}t tjd d |d |rd|dndWnJty}z2t tjd dt|jd|WYd}~n d}~00|rqttqZdS)Nz--oncerrr])newliner_)Z fieldnamesz%PAPER Poly-US quoter running (window zh, ladder 0-5c, size z, maker REBATE z). Places nothing.z%H:%M:%Sz logged quotes on z legsz , completed z book(s)z cycle error: z: )sysargvOUTraopencsvZ DictWriterFIELDSZ writeheaderrrrrrrIrJrr0type__name__r-sleep POLL_SECS)oncenewrwncrpr r rmains*     <r__main__)rr):__doc__rrJrIrrbrrr-pathlibrpathinsertZpoly_us_pricesrmZ live_monitorromapsrr`rrrrrrrZBANKROLLrr rrrrrr(r+r.r7r8rrSr\rerjrqr}rrrrrrrrrrrr r r rsl%   !,&