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ã @ sD d Z ddlZej dd¡ ddlmZ dZdd„ Zedkr@eƒ dS ) a0 One-shot reminder: run the Pinnacle line-age / fresh-feed test.
Scheduled for 2026-08-28 (about a month after the 2026-07-28 finding). Emails the
reminder using the existing daily_signals.send_email helper, then the Windows task
that fires it is a one-off, so nothing recurs.
WHY A SCHEDULED TASK AND NOT A CHAT REMINDER: Claude's own cron jobs are
session-only and expire after 7 days, so they cannot carry a month. This runs off
Task Scheduler on the box, which survives reboots and closed sessions.
Context lives in memory/project_pin_line_staleness.md.
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Reminder: test the Pinnacle line-age gate
Set on 2026-07-28. Full context in
memory/project_pin_line_staleness.md.
What was found
- Our "Pinnacle" is API-Football's relay, updating about every
5.8 hours. Kalshi's own mid updates every ~2.3h.
- On 150 OOS forward-test bets, ROI decays monotonically with line age:
0-1h -5.5%, 1-3h -21.4%, 3-6h -45.5%,
6h+ -48.7%.
- Controlling for time-to-kickoff: fresh line +3.0% vs stale
-42.0% (n=91).
- The 55 "censored" (freshest) bets carried +40.6%, z=+2.14 — the
only near-significant number in the forward test.
What to do now
- Re-run
python research\xlow_vs_line_age.py. A month of extra
bets should roughly double the sample. Does the gradient hold?
That is the forward confirmation the original result needed.
- If it holds, wire the free fix: gate xlow so it will not fire when the
Pinnacle line has not moved in ~1.3h, and log line age on every signal.
- Optionally add a real-time feed. Capture script is already written:
main/pin_fresh_capture.py (needs PINNAPI_KEY in
.env; free tier is 100 req/day, one call covers the whole
slate). Analysis harness: research/pin_fresh_vs_stale.py.
Calibrate expectations: even the freshest watched bucket was only
+3.0%. A live feed plausibly turns this from losing into marginal, not into a
machine.
Note: the API-Football plan expired 2026-08-07 — if odds went dark,
that is why, and the gradient test needs data from before then.
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