---
name: Strategy C - Home picks via highest B365 CLV
description: Backtested but unimplemented strategy for soccer pipeline - bet HOME when home outcome has highest B365 CLV at PRE snapshot
type: project
---

Backtested strategy candidate found 2026-05-16. Full notes saved to `E:/soccer/strategy_C_research.md`.

**Rule:** Bet HOME at Kalshi ask if `clv_b365_home` is the highest of the 3 outcome CLVs in the PRE snapshot.

**Results:** ~54% WR across -200/-480/-720 min windows, +6-10% ROI on flat $10 stakes, n=134-153 bets per window.

**Why:** This is *complementary* to current strategy (Kalshi CLV > 5% = away/underdog focus). Strategy C captures home favorites at medium prices.

**Why not layered:** Combining as a filter on top of Kalshi CLV (Strategy B in the analysis) reduces sample too aggressively and underperforms.

**How to apply:** When user revisits this, see `E:/soccer/strategy_C_research.md` for full backtest table and open questions. Implementation would be a parallel concurrent strategy in `daily_signals.py` or `live_monitor.py`, not a filter on the existing one.