a bja @sdZddlZddlmZeedZgZeD]@Ze dr2e dsLq2e ddur\q2e dshq2e eq2d Z e eZ ed d eDZed d eDZdZdZeD],Zedrqedd kred7Zqed7ZqdZdZdZeD]ZedZdevZedZedZedZee Zedkr:ed7ZqerJedkZnedkZerzed7ZedeeZee7Zqee8Zqedede dedededede dee dddeded ed!ed"edee ddd#ed$edee ddd#ed%eeeddd&ed'e dd(d)ed*ede edee edddeded ed+eed,eed ed-ed.ed/d0D]Z dZ!dZ"dZ#eD]ZedZdevZede Zedkr qe#d7Z#edZerDeddkZ$n eddkZ$e$rte"d7Z"e!edee7Z!ne!e8Z!qed1e dd2d3e!d4d5e"e#dd6d7e!ed4qdS)8z Hypothetical: instead of betting YES on the underdog, bet NO on the favorite. NO on opposite side wins on (target wins) OR (draw). Tests user's hypothesis that many losing bets were draws. N)PathzE:/soccer/bet_history.json kalshi_askZ kalshi_stakewonftr?ccs|]}|drdVqdS)rN.0brr*E:\soccer\misc\archive\no_side_backtest.py r ccs|]}|ddVqdS)Z kalshi_pnlrN)getr rrr r rDrgZbetZHOMEgGz?AHzF======================================================================zSample: z resolved Kalshi betsz ORIGINAL (YES on underdog):z Wins: z / z (dz.1fz% WR)z P&L: $z+.2fz Losses breakdown:z Lost to DRAW: z % of total)z Lost to OTHER team: z -> z% of losses are drawsz7 HYPOTHETICAL (NO on favorite, assuming DRAW priced at z.0fzc):z Hit rate: z% Skipped (NO price would be > 99c): z DIFFERENCE: $z& Sensitivity to DRAW price assumption:z3 Draw price | Alt P&L | Alt WR | Delta vs originalz3 -----------+---------+--------+------------------)g ףp= ?g)\(?rgQ?g{Gz?z z>6.0fzc | $z>+6.2fz | z>5.1fz% | $)%__doc__Zjsonpathlibrloads read_texthZks_betsr rappendZDRAW_PRICE_ASSUMEDlennsumZ orig_winsZorig_pnlZ lost_to_drawZ lost_to_otherZalt_winsZ alt_pnl_totalZno_too_expensiveZsideupperZis_homerZstakerZno_priceZ alt_wins_thisZ win_profitprintZdpZ alt_pnl_sZ alt_wins_sZn_incZwinsrrrr s           &  .