a ˢdjA@sdZddlZddlZddlZddlZddlmZejddddl Z dZ e ej dkrfeej dndZdd Zd d ZdddZddZedkredS)a Per-league Pinnacle calibration test (read-only, trades nothing). THE QUESTION IT ANSWERS: "is a league's bad record a structural problem with that market, or just variance?" xlow measures CLV against Pinnacle fair. If Pinnacle is mis-calibrated in a league, CLV against it is meaningless there -- no amount of sample size on our BETS would reveal that, because the bets inherit the broken anchor. WHY IT'S POWERFUL: it uses EVERY fixture with Pinnacle odds + a result, not just the handful we bet. That's ~40x more data per league (BSA: 32 fixtures vs 12 bets), so calibration becomes testable long before bet-level ROI does. FIRST RUN (2026-07-25, n=1212 fixtures across 21+ leagues): - POOLED: Pinnacle implied 25.0% draws, actual 25.4%. Calibrated to within 0.4pp. The anchor the whole strategy rests on is sound -- this had never actually been verified before. - BSA (the 0-for-12 league that prompted the test): implied 47.6%H/26.7%D, actual 56.2%H/15.6%D. Biggest deviation in the table, and adverse to us since BSA bets skew AWAY. BUT home z=+0.98, draw z=-1.42 -- noise. - Every league shows large deviations at n=30-50 with RANDOMLY SIGNED direction (E0 +9.6pp draws, P1 +8.9, N1 +8.5 vs E2 -6.3, T1 -6.1, SC0 -4.7). Random signs at small n is the signature of noise; a real structural bias would be consistent across comparable leagues. - To detect BSA's observed 8.6pp home-calibration error at 95% you need ~130 BSA fixtures (~4x current, roughly a full season). HOW TO USE LATER: re-run when a league has accumulated materially more fixtures (or when any league's record looks structurally broken). A league whose deviation reaches |z| > 2 with n >= 100+ fixtures is a genuine calibration problem -> that league's CLV signal is not trustworthy and it should be dropped from the strategy (a real reason, unlike the hindsight league-culling that project_league_filter_study already killed). Usage: python research\pin_calibration_by_league.py [min_n] N) defaultdictzE:\soccer\research)z*E:\soccer\poly_backfill\*_polybackfill.csvzE:\soccer\live_data\*.csvc Csgt}}tD]}t|D]}tt}zpt|dddN}t|D]2}||d|d|d|df |qJWdn1s0YWnt yYq Yn0| D]\}}||vs|d sqt |} | d vrqd d |D} | sq| d } t | dt | dt | d} } }d| | |fvs| dkr| dkr|dkshq||t | | |f}| t|d| |d |d|ddqq q|S)zEvery unique fixture with a result and valid Pinnacle 1X2 at the LAST pre-KO snapshot (closest to kickoff = sharpest line).zutf-8)newlineencodingZ game_dateZleaguehomeZawayNr)HDAcSs&g|]}|dpddkr|qS)ZstatusrZPRE)getupper).0rr/E:\soccer\research\pin_calibration_by_league.py Gz!load_fixtures..Zpin_homeZpin_drawZpin_awayr)lgftrpfhpfdpfa)setSOURCESglobrlistopencsvZ DictReaderr append ExceptionitemsKZ_resultZ_faddZ fair_multdict)outseenZpatpathZfxZfhrkeyZrowsrZpreZlastZphZpd_ZpaZpfrrr load_fixtures3sB  (    ( .r+cCs2t||d|}|dkr.||||SdS)NrrgmathZsqrt)nZ implied_pZ actual_countZsdrrrz_forUsr/X9v?\(\?cCs&t|d|}|||ddS)zGFixtures required to detect a calibration error of `effect_pp` (in pp).rgY@rr,)Z effect_ppZbase_pZconfZsd1rrrn_neededZsr2cCs(t}tt}|D]}||d|qtdttdt|dtdg}t|dddD]\}}t|}|tkrqlt d d |D|}t d d |D|}t d d |D|} t d d |D} t dd |D} t dd |D} t ||| t ||| t || | } }}t t | t |t |}d}|dkrh|dkrhd}||n|dkrvd}t|dd|dd|ddd| |ddd| dd|ddd| |ddd|dd| ddd| |ddd|dd|qlt|}t dd |D|}t dd |D} t dd |D|}t dd |D} ttd |d!|dd"d#| |dd"d$t ||| d%d&|dd"d#| |dd"d$t ||| d%d'td(ttd)d*D]"}td|d+d,t |d-q|rtd.|d/ntd0dS)1Nrz=Pinnacle calibration by league (last pre-KO snapshot), min_n=ztotal fixtures loaded:  zIlg n impH actH zH impD actD zD impA actA zA flagcSst|d S)Nr)len)Zkvrrrjrzmain..)r*css|]}|dVqdSrNrrxrrr nrzmain..css|]}|dVqdSrNrr7rrrr9orcss|]}|dVqdS)rNrr7rrrr9prcss|]}|ddkVqdSrr Nrr7rrrr9qrcss|]}|ddkVqdSrr Nrr7rrrr9rrcss|]}|ddkVqdS)rr Nrr7rrrr9srrrdz STRUCTURAL?z watch (n low)Z6s Z4dz5.1fz+5.2fz z css|]}|dVqdSr:rr7rrrr9rcss|]}|ddkVqdSr<rr7rrrr9rcss|]}|dVqdSr6rr7rrrr9rcss|]}|ddkVqdSr;rr7rrrr9rz POOLED n=z: draws implied z.1fz % actual z% (z=z+.2fz) | homes implied )z -> pooled calibration is the load-bearing check: if this is tight, the fair-value anchor is sound and per-league wobble is noise.zBfixtures needed to detect a calibration error of given size (95%):)g333333!@ z4.1fz pp -> n = z5.0fz FLAGGED (|z|>2 with n>=100): zV -- these leagues' CLV signal may not be trustworthy; investigate before trading them.z2 No league flagged as structurally mis-calibrated.)r+rrr!printMIN_Nr4sortedr#sumr/maxabsr2)ZallfZbyfZflaggedrsr.ZiHZiDZiAZcHZcDZcAZzHZzDZzAZworstflagZpprrrmain`s(  6   &    rL__main__)r0r1)__doc__sysr rr- collectionsrr)insertZkalshi_only_executionr$rr4argvintrDr+r/r2rL__name__rrrrs$  " 6