a dij@sfdZddlZddlZddlZejddddlZddlZ dZ dZ dZ ddZ ed krbee dS) aONE-OFF CAPABILITY PROBE: does Polymarket US accept a resting SELL order? WHY THIS EXISTS. The three-leg maker strategy means SELLING all three outcomes. Our Poly-US client has only ever sent ORDER_INTENT_BUY_LONG, so whether the venue accepts a resting sell is untested -- and it is the last unknown blocking a Poly-US version of the market maker. Everything else already checks out: - three outcome markets per event, each with a real two-sided book (Fluminense v Bahia: 0.53/0.54, 0.25/0.27, 0.19/0.21 -- 102c of asks) - ORDER_TYPE_LIMIT with a time-in-force, so orders can rest - MAKER REBATE of 0.0125*C*p*(1-p) CREDITED to the maker (docs.polymarket.us/fees, effective 2026-07-01) versus Kalshi's maker fee of exactly zero. Worth +0.76c/contract on the book above, and it drops the break-even gross from +2.38c (Kalshi) to +1.42c -- which makes ordinary 2c books profitable - taker fee 0.06*p*(1-p), cheaper than Kalshi's 0.07, for forced completions - book depth of 7-20 contracts versus Kalshi's 1,749-44,427, so a resting order is near the FRONT of the queue instead of behind a wall WHY IT IS SAFE. Sells YES at 0.98 on a leg trading at ~0.21. Nobody pays 98c for something worth 21c, so it cannot fill. Even if it somehow did, selling at 0.98 collects 98c against a maximum 100c liability -- max loss 2 CENTS on 1 contract. The order is cancelled about two seconds later, and the script aborts before sending anything if the book has moved somewhere unexpected. This is a DELIBERATE one-off exception to the paper-only rule (both venues have AUTO_TRADE_ENABLED=False since 2026-07-25). It is a capability probe, not a trade: no directional view, no edge sought, cancelled immediately. Run: python research\polyus_sell_probe.py NzE:\soccer\mainzatc-bra-flu-bah-2026-07-29-bahg\(\?c Cstt}|r|ds,tdtddStd|dd|dd|d d |d d |dd krtd|ddtddStdtdtdtdtddztjtttdd}WnVt y}zt y}z$td&|d'|d(WYd}~dSd}~00td)dS)*NZbestAskz no book for z% -- market may have closed. Aborting.rz book: bid ZbestBidz / ask z (depth ZbidDepth/ZaskDepth)g333333?zask z! unexpectedly high vs sell price z -- refusing to send. Aborting.z placing SELL_SHORT z @ z (cannot fill; max loss $z.2fz if it somehow did)ZORDER_INTENT_SELL_SHORT)Zintentz REJECTED: z: iXzv => Poly-US does NOT accept this sell form. The maker strategy would need the buy-the-other-side construction instead.rz ACCEPTED:iidorderz order id:z8 !! no order id in response -- CANCEL MANUALLY in the UIz CANCELLED:i,z!! CANCEL FAILED: z !! CANCEL z MANUALLY IN THE UIz => Poly-US accepts resting sells. A Poly-US market maker is viable, and on current numbers looks better than Kalshi on every measured axis.)PZget_bboSLUGgetprint SELL_PRICEQTYTZplace_limit_order Exceptiontype__name__strjsondumpstimesleepZ cancel_order)breZoidcr'E:\soccer\research\polyus_sell_probe.pymain,sL      &"   r__main__)__doc__rsysrpathinsertZpoly_us_pricesrZpoly_us_traderrr r r rrexitrrrrs.