a /N$j @sdZddlZddlZddlZddlZddlmZej j ddde dd\Z Z gd Zd d ed DZejed dZejedddded<eedZeeddkeddk@ZddZddZddZedee e Zededeed d!D],\ZZed"ed#d$ed#d%eeeq ed&ed'd( j!D]Z"ee"eej#e"kqZed)ed*ee e Z$e%e&e$d+Z'ee$j(e'dd(j)\Z*Z+ed,e$j(e'ded)ed-gZ,d.D]Z-d/e-Z.eee.e kee.e k@Z/e/ dj0ed0d1Z/e-e/d2<e/e.e/d3<e/d4e-d5e/d6<e/d7d8d9d.e-k1e%e/d:<e,2e/qeje,d dZ,e,j d3d;d<j0ed0d1Z,e3e,d6dkd=e,d6ej4e,d><e,j5d>d7gd?j6d d@Z,e3e,d:dAke,d>dAdBe,d(<edCe,dS)DaN Does the Kalshi CLV signal work on the DRAW outcome? The live strategy is home/away only. Reconstruct draw signals with the SAME rules (clv_kalshi_draw in [5,12)%, first band entry, dedupe per game), settle vs ftr=='D', and score ROI/significance. Also try the wider band and a train/test split so the read is honest. Pure analysis. N)statszutf-8replace)encodingerrorsz E:\soccer)皙?Q?)Z game_datehomeawaycCs,g|]$}|dr|dkrtd|qS)z.csvztest.csvz live_data/)endswithpdZread_csv).0fr*E:\soccer\research\analysis\_draw_check.py srZ live_dataT)Z ignore_indexZ timestampZmixedZcoerce)formatrtsZstatusZPREelapsedcCsd}tt||kt||k@}|djtdd}|||d<|d|d<|d|d <t|dd kd |dtj|d <|d dkt |d<|j gddj dd}t|ddk|d dd|d<|dj ddS)NZclv_kalshi_drawrfirstZkeepclvZkalshi_draw_askaskZ pin_fair_drawp_winr?oddsftrDwon)rrrZsubsetTZdropnet) precopy sort_valuesdrop_duplicatesGAMEnpwherenanastypeintdropna reset_index)lohicqrrrbuilds    $"r3cCsRt|}|dkr tdtdfS||jddt|}|dtj|fS)Nr*r )Zddof) lenfloatmeanZstdr(ZsqrtrZnormZcdf)r"nzrrrzp$sr:cCst|dkr"td|dddSt|dj\}}td|ddt|dd|jd d |jd d |jd d|jdd|dd|ddS)Nrz z<26z n= 0r"z n=z>4z | WR z>5.1%z | ROI z>+7.1%z | net z>+7.1fzu | mean odds z>4.2fz | z=z+.2fz p=z.3f) r5printr:valuesrr7r"sumr)namesr9prrrreport*s 4  rAzNDRAW outcome -- does the CLV signal carry? (live strategy is home/away only) z"Same rules as live (band [5,12)%):z draws [5,12)%zW Wider/alt bands (draws sit in a narrow prob region, so the band may bite differently):))Q?r)r{Gz?)rCr)r皙?)rrD)rBg333333?[z.0%,)z Per-league (band [5,12)%):leaguer"zQ ================================================================================zLHonest train/test on the [5,12)% draw set (first 60% TRAIN / last 40% TEST):g333333?zTEST (last 40%)zAFor reference -- HOME/AWAY (the live edge) on the same data/band:)rr Z clv_kalshi_rrsiderZkalshi_Z_askrrHArF)Z ascendingrrrrr r!zhome/away [5,12)%)7__doc__ossysZnumpyr(Zpandasr Zscipyrstdout reconfigurechdirZEDGE_LOZEDGE_HIr'listdirZdfsconcatZdfZ to_datetimeZnotnar$r#r3r:rAr;Zsigr/r0groupbyr=r%indexZlgrHr?r,r5ZcutZilocr<ZztZptZharIr1r2r&r+appendr)r*r-r.rrrrs`       &    $"